drew -

i remember you talking about that a few months ago. though i personally have
been working off of a 1975 analogy, i think youre right on with your analysis.

regardless of which one you look at the larger point is that markets dont need a
'retest' to bottom out. they can have a V shape and do so under the worst of
economic conditions.

lazlo barini made a great point that once you get a rally coming out of a
recession, its more likely than not to go a whole year without a 10%
correction.

i went back and looked, sure enough, its almost always the case.

Ryan, yet another good point!

I had a discussion with TN a month or two ago about the similarities of this
past bear and the '29-'32 bear market. Nymph argued that we needed a retest. I
argued that we had already had one since the March lows. Don't laugh, hear me
out. In the Great Bear there was a retest several months after the bottom. It
ended just 10 points above the earlier bottom. But, in percentage terms, it was
20% higher than the previous bottom. We have been back to that area(20% above
the previous low), around the 8000 area on the Dow since the March low.
Predictions, no, try hindsight. The trouble is most people are looking at it
from a points perspective and not a percentage perspective when comparing the
two. I haven't heard a single so called pro talk about this probably because
they are trying to talk down the market to gain a good entry point.

its a bull market until it isnt. and we do not have the type of momentum
divergences that were built into the market in march.

This bull run may continue through the end of September with some 'tape
painting' so that hedge funds and mutual funds can show a great third quarter.
But once October rolls around, watch out.

well....i'm thinking it was the tv media and the news papers....who put emphasis
on fear in the publics eye....it seems to be building again. caution signs
everywhere. selling begets selling. we've had a nice 2 quarters.

i agree with 100%,,,my opinion is that we r way ahead of ourselves and over
valued.i guess u could say i am bearish. but the market will never do what most
think ,it does the oppisite.this market is exacty like the huge run up in oil in
2008 when it reached a high of 147.everyone was throughing out insane price
targets of 200,250,even 300 in some cases.u could not short oil as the momentum
was too strong. money was being made almost every single day to the
upside.everyone was bullish on oil..but in the back of everyones mind was the ?
can this rally realy continue??..i look at this market as oil in the 130's ,it
still went higher but was near the top .u just won't know when the top is. for
the rest of this year the market will rally off momentum and very low
expectations.2010 will be the year when we realy find out how good things
r.stimulas will be nearing the end,and inflation should start to kick in