Open Question
As of this writing the yield on the ten year is down to 3.33%(good for mortages)
gasoline is going down (good for discreationary spending) banks are making tons
of money from the yield curve. Grant it that the unemployment rate may go to
10%+ but isn't that already baked in? What is the other bad news that isn't
known?
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why do we need new bad news to go lower? why do people assume news is needed for
a market to move?
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we need oil higher and treasures to sell off,it sounds counterintutive but
thats what we need.treasures rallying means its a flight to safty and oil
droping is a fear of less demand due to a very weak economy,at least that how
the market looks at it
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I'm looking at TBT for guidance on what to do next. Treasuries are more popular
than the market at the moment. I think the dollar strengthens a bit from here.
Maybe UUP 26. But then again maybe you should ignore my advice. I've been
bullish since March only to turn decisively bearish today. Knowing my luck we
have an intense market rally tomorrow.
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I think LIBOR is actually the instrument most mortgages are tied to. Gas is down
from last year's highs but it's over 3.29 in California - way up from the last
six months.
The higher dollar (that King Dollar childish refrain of Larry Kudlow) has
severely impacted our exports.
Just all unclear ... and the market has to retest levels before it can move
decisively. Decisively up, I think.
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