Consumer Feels Like...
Open Question
OK. I'll ask the silly question.
Dan.
Is this a nice pullback, buying opportunity or is this the beginning of the end
of this wonderful-why-couldn't-it-last-forever rally.
Thank you for, umm, your answer.
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I honestly could not answer with certainty. However, the market has rallied a
lot...and the bottom line is this: "Um, what has changed?" Nothing!
We've got a bunch of folks who are just learning their way around running a
country and they are making mistakes (happens in every new administration).
They have been goofing up with the tactic of constantly reminding everyone that
they inherited the problem (just as Bush did, and Clinton did, and Bush did, and
Reagan did. But it's tough for partisan guys to get rid of the partisanship,
though they learned a while ago that they've got to talk UP the economy, not
DOWN. So this rally is largely the byproduct of them learning those lessons.
And that's a good thing!
But structurally, nothing has changed!
This rally is based on the widespread (and wrong -- IMHO) belief that the
economy is going to get better soon. I believe that the rate of implosion is
just slowing...like a skydiver who is in freefall and then pops his chute.
Still going down, just not as fast.
But this is what bottoms are made of, and Washington DC and Wall Street have one
thing in common. They are both trying to stall for time by appearing to be in
charge, prescient and competent. But truth be told -- there is not much that
can be done to get the economy going again except to just embrace the passage of
time.
Ultimately, things will work out. They always do because civilization is
maturing, advancing. Our kids will have a better life than we have. The market
will move higher. But I fiercely believe that it will move higher IN SPITE of
what the government is doing, not BECAUSE of what the government is doing.
And that will take quite a bit of time to play out.
Believe in yourself...and no one else!
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