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Bank of America Corp - The Bouncing Knife1/16/2009 | MarketHistory.com
By Jay Pasch
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1/16/2009 Bank of America Corp - The Bouncing Knife
Bank of America (BAC) slashed through to new 52-week lows ($10.01) by
Thursday's $8.32 close for a stunning $4.67 loss for a 'very big' decline of
-36%. Today's empirical evidence coupled with news of a new $20-billion capital
infusion by the federal government suggests getting long the stock:
Q: Over the course of its history, how does BAC perform after crossing to
52-week lows with a day that closed down 'very big'?
A: According to the 10 previous occurrences of this event, EventEdge indicates
that BAC has shown a strong bullish edge that peaks 20 trading days after the
event. Thus, the projected date for the peak of the bullish edge relative to the
current event date (Thursday, 15 January 2009) is Friday, 13 February 2009. BAC
rallies in 100% of the cases (10 of 10) by an average of 11.3% relative to the
close on the event date. The overall return of the 10 cases is 11.3%, which,
based on the close of BAC on the event date ($8.32), provides a target price of
$9.26.
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The fact that this "projected date for the peak" in February is Friday the 13th
would be enough to keep me away from the stock.
Spurious correlation unless there is a thesis, imho.
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