@Classic, Some, just some not all, farmers in CA are specky. Truck crops
(veggies), fruit, nursery crops, floral crops have dramatically good and bad
years. Tends to make risk more acceptable. Irrigated field crops are more stable
in price but having worked on a 38,000 acre foreclosure and other foreclosures
in the early 1980's, some, not all but some farmers, were leveraged to the max
and repayment was dependent on 72 cent cotton and the like. Good for your
family!! Watch our for inheritance taxes. My family farms table grapes, truck
crops and soon I'm going to give wine grapes a try, small scale.

there will always be some speculators... but my point about farmers being way
tighter with their money than house speculators is valid.

there will still be a bubble at some point... i don't feel we're there at this
point. my dad is 54 and is looking at being out of debt for the first time in
his life this year. it's a big deal for these people to do that.

I don't imagine most farmers in that age group or a little younger even is in a
different boat as dad is... and the younger ones like my brother are the same
way as well for obvious reasons.

if farmers are JUST getting out of debt, i don't imagine they're to the point
where they're going to be buying up tons of land until this winter... and the
credit crisis here might actually cut off a bigger bubble than might have
happened otherwise because it will scare them.

one blessing anyway.

@Classic, used to work for Farm Credit in CA, if dollar rises and commodity
demand dampens it is eventually bad for ag land prices. SOME farmers in the
California Central Valley were speculators and would leverage to the hilt based
on optimistic commodity prices. Bankers would go along as usual.
@Kurt Farm Credit System has a very low delinquency rate right now. Almost the
lowest it has ever been. Plus the FNME bailout implies a government guarantee
for this system also ... doesn't it? So financing should be available.

and i'll also say while i'm at it kurt... most farmers have been paying off
their loans. they'll better weather this storm than most people.

i doubt they're really worried about getting more loans honestly... only the
real idiots were looking to buy more land when prices were that high. do you
know how much money they're making the last few years?

The smart ones i know (most of them) were saving for after land crashed.

farmers are so conservative with their money it isn't even funny.

Some parts of ag are too high. grain prices are still high compared to
historical averages.

depends on your perspective. I know some farmers aren't using as much
fertilizer because it doesn't help them out as much on certain crops. mostly i
think it depends on where you feel the crops will end up in march, not now when
harvest is hitting.

i know they were paying premiums on soybeans in nebraska as recently as 2 weeks
ago when soybeans were still over 11 or 12. They just had no supply.

Something tells me that supply is going to be even lower next summer. but maybe
that's just me.

Farmers have been having issues in obtaining loans as well. This doesn't bode
well for ag spending.

I question DE as well because of lending issues with corporations as the credit
crisis had extended well beyond financial institutions. See the recent struggles
CAT had in obtaining refinancing.

Kurt sounds like Cramer but I do agree Ag is still too high except for semi Ag
like DE

Hey surf!!
Well....if holding up Ok ...
means being down ...
on average about 70%....
I'll buy it...
when you get in at this level...
you have to understand who your neighbors in the stock are....
some got in way up...and are just...
itching to get out...
beware of your neighborhood...:)
good luck to us all!!!

Im in Cash. But salivating at these prices.