Blitz and all the holders of CHK, as you may know CHK was at the Lehman energy
conference yesterday and Aubrey spoke and I picked this up from another board,
so I thought I share it with everyone, sorry for the long post
LEH 09/02/2008 Analysts’ Presentation
Aubrey’s comments were as follows:
.
•Hedging:
•2008: 100% hedged for the remainder of the year
•2009: ~75% hedged @ $9.75; ~25% hedged with calls with $.90 premium
•2010: ~45% hedged @ $9.50; ~35% hedged with calls with $.90 premium
•Haynesville and Fayetteville JVs will provide $2.5 billion of capex drilling
and completion carry to CHK over the next several years
•Marcellus JV partner will likely be a non-US based company that will use the
venture to learn how to exploit shale formations and then take that know how to
international regions
•CHK has the largest leasehold position in the Haynesville (even larger than
DVN's stated position) now at 500,000 net acres and continuing to grow
•6.5 (if not higher) bcfe per well is a solid EUR for the Haynesville
•Expected 2009 JVs:
• West Texas
• Deep Bossier
•Currently utilizing 3,500 land men acquiring $2 million/day of new leasehold
(~$500 million per year)
•Fayetteville JV: the $800 million drilling/completion carry that BP will pay
on future wells will save CHK $350 million of taxes that would have been due if
the amount had been received up front in cash making the total value to CHK
$2.25 billion ($1.1 billion received up front + $800 million future
drilling/completion carry + $350 million tax savings)
•Effective 01/01/2010, the SEC will modify its definition of proved reserves
to allow for UNconventional resources; CHK will be a major beneficiary of this
change
•Haynesville is currently estimated to have 800 tcfe of “in place
reserves” which is expected to be 30% to 35% recoverable
•CHK continues to complete 10+ mmcfe/day wells Haynesville wells
•Appalachia:
•Just completed a Trenton Black River formation horizontal well that IP at 10
mmcfe
•Now has 1.8 million Marcellus leasehold acres
•CHK is seeing that its peak production for the area will not be for 20 years
•Due to the various JV and VPP transactions, CHK’s “DD&A” (depreciation,
depletion and amortization) expenses will be declining through 2010 while the
industry’s rates will be rising, improving CHK’s profitability into the
future especially when compared to its peers
•CHK has raised ~$6.25 billion through JVs, VPP and other sales transactions
this year and expects another $2+ billion before year-end from the Marcellus JV,
additional VPP, etc.
•Confirmed once again CHK did not want to be in the market in the future
issuing additional “securities” (i.e., equity or debt)
•CHK’s first Analysts’ Meeting will be held on October 15th and 16th
•CHK will address the current NG supply level over the next 30 days (beyond
the current hurricane activity) to determine what actions it might take as an
industry leader to improve the situation
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Ron2024 , Thank you again for all this excellent info. ,we all greatly
appreciate all of your research and input. Keep up all the fantastic work !
Recs: 2 Ike (from Bloomberg)...
Natural Gas Rises as Hurricane Ike Moves Toward Gulf of Mexico
By Reg Curren
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures rose on forecasts that Hurricane Ike
may move into the Gulf of Mexico, a region that produces about 14 percent of
U.S. supplies.
Gas futures were alternately higher and lower today amid storm forecasts and a
drop in crude oil as a strengthening dollar curbed demand for commodities to
hedge inflation. Ike may enter the Gulf Sept. 10, the National Hurricane Center
in Miami said.
"We're probably looking at a $7 to $8 trading range until the parade of
storms begins to diminish,'' said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3027-unusualoptmid.html?mod=topnav_2_302
8
CHK will address the current NG supply level over the next 30 days (beyond
the current hurricane activity) to determine what actions it might take as an
industry leader to improve the situation IE (consider starting to build a LNG
export plant to get better $$$$ for their nat gas)
Also, GS cut their Nat Gas forecast for 09 as well:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive
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