Commodity sell off today. If this continues, proves one thing. Little demand for
basic materials going forward six mos. to one year. Less demand and many
companies that use these commodities in their products will be forced to cut
back on production.
Result, higher unemployment more layoffs, more bankruptcy filings and we enter
a full blown recessionary environment that many of you have never had the
opportunity to experience until now...
Last big one we had was the 74-76 time period with another moderate one from
80-83 and 91-93.
This one may possibly rival the 74-76 recession.
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whatever you freaking drama quenn
All of the stocks killing everyone today are turning into the biggest value
traps ever. I don't think the magic wand of momentum will be touching the
commodity related names for awhile...the numbers will have to prove there is no
slow down and that won't be a one quarter test.
Sooz and all... If this commodity sell off continues for an extended period,
IMO, it clearly shows worldwide demand has slowed... Will move through the
economy in the manufacturing of goods and materials.
This may last only a brief time or could be prolonged. Wish I knew.
They sold off in late April too...but didn't continue vanishing into 'The
Abyss'..
So..are you saying this is when they will vanish for awhile..?
I have some cash...always cash..
Used some of it today ..as a matter of fact..:)
Sooz
no, wait - Nixon was President, it was earlier than that. At least college
exposed me to a hedonistic life style, however brief
1 months ago - Report Abuse
I got laid off from a great factory job in 1975 and I had to go to college on
borrowed money, what a raw deal that was
1 months ago - Report Abuse
You certainly may be right T-Bird...you usually are.
But like the previous response, I think this may have more to do with everyone
who had piled into these last sectors that were still working...heading for the
exits at the same time.
I doubt that much has fundamentally changed in the oil and ag names in the last
month (no more than fundamentals had changed in the last year to make these so
wildly popular). Lots of speculators (especially hedge funds) have moved these
things up too quickly...and now, down too fast.
That said, perhaps a few months down the road we will see exactly what you
predict (lower demand). In which case you may have been right all along.
Haven't been on much in many months. Hope you are well and having a good
summer.
This thesis could be right.
But.
With contracts for infrastructure in parts of the world for the next ten years
changing some of the world's most populous countries from agrarian peasant to
service/techno/highly literate, the building will not slow down appreciably and
the suppliers of commodities will simply have to watch their margins - and most
have given realistic high growth beliefs and have shown the ability to pass on
costs.
Obviously, the trend matters more than logical conclusions but we have seen
these sharp sell offs in the commodities and then discovered margin calls of
unbelievably large amounts of money on traders who have played oil the wrong
way, hedge fund redemptions and the simple need for cash to play another way.
Nothing has been about just what we are seeing.
Troubled by this - and just can't believe it's all about slowdown or even fears
of it. This was a frenzy to exit, I think.
well i hate too be negitive but i am more incline too agree with u here than be
bullish ,,things r not good ,the financials still r in alot of trouble and this
bounce they had seems fake ,,,i am now starting too raise more cash and am
looking too hedge here as we may come too see 10,000 on the dow
hey...do those dates coincide with starting the bull run the market had? start
investing! tel your friends!
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