Snap out for how long.

Oil dropping is enough for a significant bear market rally. Key word there:
Bear. The key to any rally is to make sure you get out of low conviction names
and stick that in cash until we got lower yet again. This is a traders market
throughout earnings season. I wouldn't look for anything spectacular in either
direction.

Oil is significantly driving this market but you also have a housing market that
isn't even close to turning around, a Fed that could raise rates, and a weak
dollar that doesn't appear to have any strength behind it.

Globally, things are slowing down and should China slow dramatically, we are all
in for some significant pain. Look for the emerging markets to completely roll
over with any further global slowing. Not good for small caps, which have been a
place of solace the last few months.

Don't fail to notice the S&P still hasn't significantly broken down yet. This is
because of those small cap and growth names in energy, materials, and other
spotty areas that have been performing very well. The DJIA has crumbled but once
again, take a look at the companies that make up that index and should it really
be a surprise? These companies are getting crushed in just about every possible
way....

A huge plunge in oil prices would be enough of a catalyst to kick start a new
bull but don't expect that for the next bounce.

I'd expect to see a nice bounce soon(one that would make it seem all over -
those are the best) which would hopefully lead to a panic plunge to 10000ish and
we'll be done.

That'll probably take months to play out.

No we can not! Not until we see some positive earning reports and oil go down.
I did read that they are mapping out the ocean floor looking for OIL

This is exactly what I am looking for. The question here is if that is going to
be possible. Are analyst expectations low enough for this to happen? Are the
shorts willing to go in and cover? Is big money willing to go in there and take
chances on things that have been badly beaten?

I think we will see a rally this week. There are big questions going into the
industrial earnings this week. Take a look at companies that make up the
DJIA.... it isn't very promising when you go down the list. This ultimately
means that it will come down to the analyst expectations and the company's
individual ability to perform and get the job done.

Personally, I would be a short coverer if I had to make trades this week. I am
looking for an overbought situation in oil to send futures down as well as some
other commodities. The only issue I have here is that there are some weather
issues that must be factored in here as well. The big question I have is to what
extent markets have priced in weather and fears of Iran. I think many of us can
argue that global demand for oil isn't slowing down enough to keep prices from
going higher. I just think we could start to see some short term selling... Take
a look at some of the action in the energy names last week. One bad news story
and they fall harder than a rock. I believe many of these names will rally
harder and ultimately to newer highs, the only question being when rather than
if.

We start off tomorrow with overnight oil trading and big money positioning
itself for earnings. If last week was any indication, they are ready to cover
shorts in financials and take profits where they made bank over the last three
months. I am with them here and I would follow that for a bit. Long term, I
still see big pain in the market and especially in the financials. The problem
here is that many have been sold down so quick more so on what I believe is fear
rather than fundamentals. An interesting fact to note is the relative strength
in the dollar vs. oil over the last few weeks. With the run oil has had,
shouldn't the dollar be much weaker?

The catalyst, Kurt...getting into earnings season and having a better than
expected results, or not as disappointing results?

I think a better question is what catalyst can take us out of this downturn.....
Let's start there.... Any ideas?

Sure why not we are do for a bounce but not a rally!