PermaBull thesis

Before I got hooked on Stocks, I was heavy into politics. I developed an idea
that I called the Perma-(Insert Democrat/Republican here) . It was my opinion
that 25% of the population would vote one way and 25% the other way Regardless
of the candidate. Even if the candidate admitted to being the Anti-Christ after
getting the nomination (only partially in jest here).

Do you think there is a similar Bull / Bear percentage split? What do you think
the level is? At present we are about 31% Bulls. The lower we get, the less
susceptible we are to major sell offs. The only way we can get major sell offs
with high volume is for bulls to switch to bears.

We are at a very low bull/bear ratio and it is probably harder and harder to
flop the remaining bulls. The market keeps grinding lower and lower, but the
VIX is really stable. I think the current market is just bears shorting to
bears rather than a flop from bull to bear. It seems to me that before a bull
flipped, (s)he would be buying protection (options), but without a movement in
the VIX this does not seem to be happening.

What we really need are some bulls to step up and buy to break the bear shorting
to other bears. Alternatively, we could break the shorts in the value investors
step up. But, without bulls or value, the bears are just going to grind lower
and lower destroying the wealth of the nation. Bear A sells short at X. Bear B
sells at X-5. Bear A buys from Bear B to cover. Bear A sells short x-10. Bear
B buys to cover. Rinse. Repeat. This alternating limits the effect of the
short squeeze because the bears cover one another.
Thought
Art