Commentary below on likely market direction for the next few months. Sounds
reasonable and cautious to me.. where I'm at. He is 40% cash. Curious where
pickr investors are in cash? Have you raised cash as the market has gone up
recently or just rotated into new investments?
thanks
FF
still long ag, energy, utilities, foreign markets
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/DontTrustThisMarket
Rally.aspx
At present, just holding several jumbo CD's and in Vanguards Prime $ mkt.
Getting killed on return. Just as soon see interest rates @ 6% as I carry no
debt and no mortgage.
Involved in real estate and shying away from Reits as commercial is beginning to
be affected by the subprime. Until '06 kept much of my funds in various
Vanguards mutual funds. Feeling I could do better managing my own portfolio,
cashed out and began trading most of the time since real estate is so slow. I
only have $200K in equities @ any one time to minimize my risk. So far so good.
I'm too cheap to subscribe to the SandP proprietary oscillator, but i imagine
it's indicating that the major averages are overbought right now. With the VIX
at about 20, a selloff seems due. Maybe the next fed meeting will be the
catalyst for such a selloff.
i wish i could say i had the "coin" to work with as you great investors on the
pickr do. however im just a soph in college with a desire to increase my
portfolio size over the years to come. my positons are all over the place from
anythin like ETFC to AAPL and last anywheres from 5 minuts in etfc, to a couple
month long positions. right now 25% cash in one account and 50% cash in another
Thank you all. Jubak is no Pi guy, but he is generally OK. He probably get
ideas from you guys!!
I guess I shouldn't be, but was pleasantly surprised to see so many folks
holding some $$s. I travel a bit, and cannot watch the market every day. So
have to be cautious.
T - curious, holding any bonds in your non stock portion of your port? how
about inflation protected treasuries?? or REIT's thnx again.
cheers
Been trading options to obtain those kind of gains! Did very well trading GS in
March and PBR this month. If I could duplicate those trades again I could quit
for the remainder of this year, but that is highly unlikely. Most of my trades
are at much smaller profits of $1K-3K. Currently have open positions in AAPL,
MRK, PBR and MSFT. Will most likely add V and possibly GOOG (on a pullback).
Lost $4K on GOOG Puts when they reported the other week. Occasionally, I end up
on the wrong side of the trade. Also, I do trade as a hedge SDS stock, not
options and may begin a position in DUG after Memorial Day. I do not see Real
Estate coming back with any vigor for at least 12 more mos. and it may be
possibly much longer.
t, if you're making 6 figure returns my hats off to ya. i'd have to be in about
300 percent to do that. mike. ps good thing you don't have to rely on re cause
that may be a long haul there. my neice (lives in albany) bailed out last year
and went back to school to be a physical therepist after her business totally
evaporated.
I have recently adapted a new approach for this market. In early December, I
withdrew all of my cash and I paid off my home and car loans. In January, I
started to create 8 long positions that I am dollar cost averaging into every
month. (40% of portfolio) I also have a set amount that I am using for trading,
that I am constantly buying and selling with (30% of portolio). I make monthly
deposits to my portfolio that were once devoted to my home and car loans. I
have been adding to my trading funds, long funds, and cash position equally, but
at anytime will have more cash as I sell out of my trading equities.
On Dec 28th 2007...I sold half of all my holding and went 50%...
I remember posting about it...and Jayson was the only one that was in agreement
with me at the time...Yahoo to you my friend...
As a matter of fact...there were other that Questioned why...so much CASH...
Then Jan 21 rolled around...and I bought things I will never get at those prices
again..
Some of which have been sols since, and others I have loaded back into my
port..repositioning myself for the Long...
It's always good to have cash at hand..., but to wait for a
bottom...hum...that's something you just get lucky on..
Susan
I know you are correct and because of the low returns in CD's etc. I should be
invested 30-40%. I am only risking enough funds for income purposes. So far this
year by risking less than 10% of my holdings, I am on track to generate profits
in the low six figures which is ample for my stage in life. My wife and myself
are in real estate and of course unlike past years, will not produce a livable
income this year. Personally, I like trading equities much better than R.E. My
wife prefers R.E. which is fine by me....
t, not saying your strategy is wrong but i think thats too much cash because
theres always the possibility that the market won't pull back, or won't pull
abck enough to give you a buying opportunity. also there have been plenty of
bargins in the last couple of months that you can trade. having said that it
goes to show that there are many ways of making money here. yours works for you,
mine works for me. everyone needs to find their own niche. mike






