After PM spin off from Altria (MO), it seems like PM is getting all the positive
sentiment, while MO is being downgraded and in general getting out of focus.
With all the growing restrictions on smoking in the US, is there any value to
hold MO? Shouldn't I just keep PM?
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Are you kidding...the're both good long stocks. MO has been great long term
because of their management and decent products. When they couldn't move the
product, they got rid of it. They made some not so good aquisitions and learned
from them. Now they're cutting costs and buying back...and will be much more
careful in spending they're monies. As for PM, you can't go wrong...not much
downside.
when i was a smoker....first it was dedicated to flavor, then it was trying
different brands, then it was whatever was cheaper....switched to smokeless
tobbacco, find myself doing same thing. once you get used to the flavor....you
buy what's cheapest....if price continues to go higher, i might have to use my
parents excuse for quitting....it cost too much.
I'm long PM, but don't like the way it has been performing. I sold MO a while
back.
jsut a follow up to the last answer, a lot of people who smoke are very loyal to
their brand. A newport smoker only wants newports, and a marlboro smoker only
marlboros...since MO has the largest share, they have a lot of smokers dedicated
to their brands. Rarely do smokers switch
if there was ever an indication as to how much PM, was actually most of the
value of the price of MO.is by looking at how much that each were on the day of
the split. PM was almost twice the price. i still this day cant understand why
kft has really not done much since they spun off from MO.imo PM is the way to
go...chris
it's sad but true... people who smoke cigarettes are largely addicted to them,
and it doesn't really matter how much they cost or where they have to smoke
them.
i'm not advocating or condoning smoking, but the fact is that cigarettes are
used in just about every Microeconomics text as an example of
price-inelasticity, as it relates to demand.
So even though sales volume is declining in the US, Altria has the lion's king
of the market, which gives it some pricing power.
They generate solid cash flow and have a decent balance sheet. They're even
looking to cut costs internally, to help improve margins.
Finally, the $7.5 billion proposed buyback program over the next two years
should also be accretive to earnings.
That's not to say you have to hold MO... most people would argue that PM is the
better "stub" from the deal, even though the domestic business includes the
SABMiller investment.
But if MO will have problems with the cigarettes market, how will they be able
to maintain a high yield?
that pretty much sums it up... something for everyone. it's also worth noting
that MO shares have acted better (down 2%) than PM (down 5%), since the split.
depends on if you prefer growth or dividends. PM should give good growth. MO
will pay bigger dividends than PM, with much less growth than PM.
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