Check out the recent fillings (13G's) for Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA) today.
Legg Masson
3,509,600 shares 2.6%
Hunter Global Associates L.L.C.
10% Series F Cumulative Convertible
2, 012,376
Wellington Managment.
10,923,221 (8.0%)
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http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5463001
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I have a couple questions for you in regards to the statistics provided in your
answer.
First:
83.5% ($29 billion) of their portfolio in HYBRID INTERMEDIATE-TERM ARMS,
primarily 5/1 and 10/1, which allows a low introductory TEASER RATES for either
5 or 10 years respectively.
How low can a "teaser rate" really be if it lasts for 5 or 10 years? This is
much different than the "teaser rates" offered on 1 month, 6 month, and 1 yr.
ARMs by the subprime lenders. Most of the 5/1 and 10/1 products were slightly
lower than the 30 yr fixed, but they were a far cry from the 1% 6 month ARM...
Next:
48.1% have an ORIGINAL effective loan-to-value of between 70-80%. Recent
studies show that 70% of all ARM holders have added a second mortgage over the
past 3-years bring their effective CLTV much higher. Factor in a sharp value
fall in CA and FL and much of TMA's portfolio is in a NEGATIVE EQUITY
situation.
Recently the Boston Fed released a study saying 'negative equity is a leading
contributor to loan default, even greater than periodic ARM adjustments.
As long as Thornburg isn't the holder of the 2nd mortgage, does it really matter
if the property is foreclosed on? With at least a 20% downpayment and equity
positions of 20-30%, in 1st position, Thornburg doesn't hold the risk. The
mortgage holder in 2nd position is the one really hurting. Property values are
have levelled off and are on the decline in some areas, no question. But I
don't think many properties have lost 30% of their value from their high 3 years
ago.
bottom line, 1st mortgage holder gets paid 1st if the house gets foreclosed on.
The guys in 2nd & 3rd position fight over the rest. Unless property values
decline 20-30% (not impossible, but unlikely) these guys should be fine.
FROM THE RECENT 10Q PAGE 39. This is not a pretty portfolio. If you look at
'averages' or 'median', which is always the case, things look decent. When you
break it down, they own Billions in high-risk ALT-A loans that cannot be sold
for any amount of money. These large groups of loans will have a much higher
default rate in the future than TMA is predicting. The facts are TMA is sitting
on a portfolio of $36 Billion, that has a street value of $10 Billion or less.
While these loans are spinning off payments currently, it does not change the
fact that one margin call from one warehouser renders them insolvent. To raise
the amount of money to cover a margin call of any substance, the damage to
shareholder equity would be tremendous, as they cannot sell loan assets to raise
money. The only reason TMA is still alive is because the warehousers do not want
this worthless paper back on their books either because they do not want to take
the mark to market his.
(Both, hybrid intermediate-term ARMs and Pay Option ARMs are classified as ALT-A
in most cases. Especially when they are STATED INCOME, which consists of 42.2%
of their portfolio.)
-83.5% ($29 billion) of their portfolio in HYBRID INTERMEDIATE-TERM ARMS,
primarily 5/1 and 10/1, which allows a low introductory TEASER RATES for either
5 or 10 years respectively.
-16.5% ($6 billion) in traditional ARMs. Judging by the indices used of 1 month
LIBOR, 6 month LIBOR, MTA and 'OTHER ($1.9 Billion), much of this could be PAY
OPTION ARMs, which are worthless and currently not selling for any amount of
money on the secondary market.
-42.2% of their portfolio are STATED INCOME
-43.6% are in CA. 7.2% in FL.
-15.3% are Condos
-18.5% are second/vacation homes. 11.1% are Non-owner occupied. (both are very
risky compared to owner occupied)
-48.1% have an ORIGINAL effective loan-to-value of between 70-80%. Recent
studies show that 70% of all ARM holders have added a second mortgage over the
past 3-years bring their effective CLTV much higher. Factor in a sharp value
fall in CA and FL and much of TMA's portfolio is in a NEGATIVE EQUITY situation.
Recently the Boston Fed released a study saying 'negative equity is a leading
contributor to loan default, even greater than periodic ARM adjustments.
4 months ago - Report Abuse
"Can Jumbos Fly?
Lenders expect that raising Fannie and Freddie caps will bring back bond buyers
and mean better terms for high-end borrowers who meet GSE underwriting
standards.
"Of the entire stimulus package, this is the thing that's going to help the
most," Covino said. "It's the only way to create liquidity for jumbo paper."
The climate around conforming loans has been sunnier. "From what we've seen in
the secondary market there's still a healthy demand for loans that conform to
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac existing guidelines," said real estate investment
trust Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE:TMA - News) in an e-mailed statement. It
originates jumbos and sells the paper on secondary markets."
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http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080214/realestate.html?.v=1
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TMA
19-Oct-07 THORNBURG GARRETT
Officer 1,000,000 Indirect Purchase at $9.50 - $9.5 per share. $9,500,0002
6-Aug-07 THORNBURG GARRETT
Officer 200,000 Indirect Purchase at $23.42 - $23.42 per share. $4,684,000
25-Jul-07 THORNBURG GARRETT
Officer 187,000 Indirect Purchase at $26.72 - $26.72 per share. $4,997,0002
6-Sep-07 GOLDSTONE LARRY A
Officer 30,000 Direct Purchase at $12.06 - $12.06 per share. $362,0002
14-Aug-07 SIMMONS CLARENCE GEORGE III
Officer 35,009 Direct Disposition (Non Open Market) at $11.54 - $11.54 per
share. $404,0002
.
I believe (could be wrong) they have an offering selling into market now. 100
million share I believe. I'm comforted somewhat that the insiders have done
significant buying of stack at higher levels then here.
.
I've been on TMApC since $15.50 on 12/31/07, and presently hold 1500 shares with
a basis of $16.32 (a gain of just a shade over 33% in under 2 months). Now
comes the dilemma - hold it and collect the 12.25% dividend yield, or sell and
take the capital gain. Dammit
And thanks, Jim - I got this one from you.
i like TMA but his buying has really been erratic. At least he--bill miller--
got bailed out of his disastrous Yahoo position.
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