FMD has conference call at 5:00 pm eastern today; the movement in this stock
will hinge on the outlook of the ability to issue ABS and at what price to
outside investors (these are private non-federal loans). SLM expects to issue
$28 billion of ABS with the vast majority being Federal student loans in FY2008.
SLM would issue more if credit conditions improve (meaning better pricing for
SLM). GS has provided liquidity to FMD so no short term funding problems for
loans held on their balance sheet (loans held for sale). All the issues
regarding prepayment; defaults; interest rate assumptions have wriiten about;
also bankstocks.com has some psotings regarding the TERI guarentee. I will be
listening for any indication on how AAA credit tranches will be priced to
reflect the market's perception of risk. I'm also interested i hearing how new
loans are being priced to the student to reflect investor unwillingness to buy
these. Any comments and wisdom welcome!!
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My thoughts on the call; it will be some time before credit conditions improve;
but the company has taken adequate steps to get through the worst. THe demand
for private student loans will INCREASE as HELOC's will be less available and
college is not getting cheaper; plus federal aid not growing fast enough. THe
company will be moving towards a more capital intensive business model as the
company looks at various ways to originate loans through their partners or their
bank and either hold them on the FMD balance sheet or sell through
Securitization or other arrangements. THe demand for the product is high; and
pricing issues in the sale of the loans will be able to be passed onto the
borrower as I believe comeptition is and will DECLINE. FMD has a lot of
practical experience so I believe they can be the go to firm in this market; GS
as an investor and strategic partner is icing on the cake. It is impossible to
predict when Wall Street will respect the company; credit spreads will need to
decline (not antcipated yet by the market), guarentor issues probably need to be
resolved; a secrutization taking place would obviously really help; and probably
underwriting data from the loan process showing the passing through of costs of
higher credit spreads. Expense reduction without loss of loan volumes a big
plus; all these will be examined going forward. Any other stockpickrs with an
opinion???
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