Jim,
Why is CRDN taking such a hit? They reported a good quarter, 1.16 per share,
missing the street's view due to tax exclusions. The conference call sounded
ok, but I don't see a reason for the stock to drop from 70 to 42. The company
reiterated guidance at 5.20 for FY07 and 5.40 to 6.60 for FY08 due to the
possibility of MRAP II orders. Do you see any more downside left since F P/E at
a minimum would be 8??
Disclosure: Writer owns stock and options in CRDN
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mhz1 --> You are right about the conference call. It seemed they feel their
stock is undervalued and tried to hammer every one of their business facets into
the call.
Jim, I hope the war is winding down but I don't see that stopping CRDN in the
nearterm. Body armor is needed for every soldier and if the war does die down
it should be essential for National Guard and Reserve units that have yet to
deploy to get SAPI plates. Our unit does not have SAPI plates; however, these
may be something you get once you deploy. Although EFP's are decreasing in
Iraq, I believe MRAP vehicles in general are needed to protect troops.
Furthermore it seems that the government, regardless of democratic or
republican, is willing to spend unlimited funds on these since IEDs are the
biggest threat to our troops.
Mr. Moskowitz and his staff made it ABUNDANTLY clear on the call today that this
company is a whole lot stronger than the market is giving it credit for. I like
Jimmy but it would be great if he would do less shooting from the hip on his
comments...unless there is something he knows.
Source(s):
Ceradyne Conference Call.
Mr. Joel P. Moskowitz
Mr. Jerrold J. Pellizzon
People that do not follow this company are of the rather naive opinion that
CRDN's future is tied directly to body-armor and conflict in the Middle East.
The fact of the matter is that this is a diversified company when it comes to
the application of ceramics, and even with management guiding down body-armor by
11% and the company seeking only 5% of the upcoming "BULL" MRAP-2 contract to be
announced at the end of next month, CRDN management is still guiding investors
to $5.60 - $6.65 EPS for 2008. (The lower end of the range is based on not
getting any of the MRAP-2 vehicle contract with its partner Oshkosh.)
CRDN has a whole host of ceramic applications towards commercial business, from
environmental filters for aluminum smelters to nuclear waste containment using
ceramic crucibles. Currently trading at ONLY 7.5 times the lower end of 2008
EPS estimates makes this stock severely undervalued, in my opinion.
I suggest that anyone that wants more info on this solid company listen to the
upcoming conference call next Tuesday at 11am to learn just how diverse this
company's prospects for growth are. It's not just all about body-armor and
vehicle armor.
I agree with you. Okay, the war may be winding down,as Cramer interjects, but
it's not over and there are still areas of the world that may require our
military intervention. I dont' think this company deserves a multiple below 10!
In my opinion, the 40% sell off is an example of irrational exuberance on the
downside. There is know way that this stock should go down any further..that
would be a total overreaction. C'mon, I thought people that worked in the stock
market were brighter than this.
I think that people think the war is winding down and the orders for new
equipment have peaked...i think they may be right
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