I’m bearish on oil, explains Deutsche analyst Paul Sankey. The winter forecast doesn’t seem terribly fierce demand is falling and supplies are certainly adequate. Also Marathon (MRO) has a new refinery coming on line. If you're looking for a trade, consider long ConocoPhillips (COP) but as a restructuring story and outright short Valero (VLO) because refiner margins are shrinking, he says.

own this stock

Energy + biofuel

have made money on this stock again and again

Unless demand rebounds, shutting idle refineries and writing down their value could cause another hit to balance sheets. Many refiners managed to raise capital earlier this year, "but if the low-margin environment persists, they may need to tap the capital markets again," says Caris' Ann Kohler, who has Underperform ratings on refiners including Tesoro, Sunoco, Valero, Frontier Oil (FTO), Holly (HOC) and Western Refining (WNR). Although Valero boasts a strong balance sheet, Sankey contends that it has "just 10 more quarters, or 2.5 years, of liquidity available" unless its markets improve.

Dividend and Long term growth

"Maybe Valero (VLO) is just a really bad company. First, what's with the second-quarter loss? This should have been a golden moment for a refiner as they have been raising prices like mad and outages have allowed for some excellent gouging. Valero also bought back a gigantic amount of stock much higher -- perhaps the most aggressive buying of stock on the New York Stock Exchange -- and now it offers 40 million shares? That's a nightmare."
("The 10% Pullback Mob," 6-3-09)

energy

Oil Refiners exposure

like the refiners

refining hit hard in hard times, oil gluts

lost mucho money, CEO and Board should be fired!

HAS NOT DONE VERY WELL IN THE MARKET

Obtained through an Elk trust investment I wasn't consulted on. Just a dog ivestment that resulted in a $44 / share basis for 191 shares

too low

Has Poor Dividends.

STOCK HAD GOOD TRACK RECORD, BUT IT'S BEEN A REAL DOG SINCE I BOUGHT IT

house of pain

LOST TOO MUCH IN IT&PUNY DIVIDEND

lost big time