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Although Shire shares have already dropped, they could fall another 15%-20% if the drug maker can't keep it's grip on the attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder market.

Outperform - Price 51.91 on May 21
by Friedman Billings Ramsey

We continue to believe SHPGY is unique among branded specialty-pharma companies with limited generic exposure following the erosion of Adderall XR in 2009. Shares are trading at 17 times the 2009 Street EPS estimate of $3.12. This translates into a P/E-to-growth rate of 0.9 times, with an estimated EPS CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 18% for 2009-'13 (the group trades nearer 1.5). Maintaining Outperform, 75 target. Market cap: $9.6 billion.

Outperform - Price 75.25 on Oct. 3
by Cowen & Co.
Recent physician checks indicate high satisfaction in efficacy and tolerability of Vyvanse [for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder]. It appears most clinicians aren't moving well-controlled Adderall XR patients to Vyvanse but new patient-start commentary for Vyvanse remains favorable. Rarely do we find a firm with [a] new product cycle with extended intellectual-property protection combined with a development pipeline that should provide extended sustainable growth...'06 EPS was $1.71; '07 estimated, $2.05; '08E, $2.75; '09E $3.10.

Outperform - Price 75.25 on Oct. 3
by Cowen & Co.
Recent physician checks indicate high satisfaction in efficacy and tolerability of Vyvanse [for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder]. It appears most clinicians aren't moving well-controlled Adderall XR patients to Vyvanse but new patient-start commentary for Vyvanse remains favorable. Rarely do we find a firm with [a] new product cycle with extended intellectual-property protection combined with a development pipeline that should provide extended sustainable growth...'06 EPS was $1.71; '07 estimated, $2.05; '08E, $2.75; '09E $3.10.

Few co's with this kind of pipeline. Stock trades on Vyvance scrpts data now. So be careful and buy on a pullback; but this one will be 105 in 1 year.

Downgraded by JP Morgan from Overweight to Neutral

Good potential for private health care in England.

Looks Good

Ratings change: buy, Price target: USD 75