Based on its price-earnings and price-to-book-value multiples, Progressive looks undervalued. The shares could jump by at least 25% over the next year.

I know the company.

The investment in the Baltimore-based asset manager reflects a significant rebalancing out of the fund's profitable energy exposure -- which had peaked at 15% early this year, and included FMC Technologies (FTI), Noble (NE), and Smith International (SII) -- into financials. Since the spring, Sloan also has added People's United Financia l (PBCT), Moody's Investor Service (MCO) and Progressive (PGR) as part of boosting his weighting in financials from 5% to 15%.

Hold - Price 18.75 on Aug. 13
by Sandler O'Neill

The insurance-holding company announced July operating EPS of 14 cents, [which beat] our 10-cent monthly estimate. The earnings surprise was largely driven by better-than-expected underwriting results, which accounted for 3 cents of the beat. Progressive reported a loss ratio of 71.7%, versus our expectation for 73.5%. It is increasingly looking like higher gas prices are causing drivers to decrease the amount that they drive -- which ultimately results in lower-than-expected accident frequency. We are adjusting our 2008 EPS estimate to $1.35, up from $1.31, to reflect the July results. Market cap: $12.7 billion.

Progressive (PGR) was upgraded from Underperform to Market Perform at Wachovia. Company has exceeded expectations for two straight months, and should see strong pricing into the investor meeting in June.

Some stocks that are underwater but still appear attractive as contrarian plays include Macy's, Discover Financial (DFS) and Progressive (PGR).

Value and Management

Top insurance company that just hiccupped. Looking for recovery

Progressive (PGR) was downgraded from Market Perform to Underperform, Wachovia said. Valuation call, as the stock trades at a hefty premium to its peers. Shares could fall to the $16 to $18 range.

charts show upward growth for last 5 years $19.06 x20 shares $381.20

Peter Lewis $$$>>>Obama

no gain over the summer