DIVIDEND & RAIL WILL COME BACK WITH UPTURN

Herzfeld's fund also holds shares of Watsco (WSO), a Florida air-conditioning distributor; Norfolk Southern (NSC), which connects to the now privately held Florida East Coast Rail Road at Jacksonville; and MasTec (MTZ), a Florida-based infrastructure company founded by prominent Cuban-American Jorge Mas Canosa.

"Oh, and speaking of not bottoming, Norfolk Southern (NSC) was bearish last night about the prospects for a bottom, and its stock is rocking up!" ("So Much Strength," 4-22-09)

On stocks of companies that have significantly lowered earnings guidance, buy defensive puts. This works for Texas Instruments (TXN), Ingersoll-Rand (IR), Eaton (ETN), International Paper (IP), National Semiconductor (NSM), Sandisk (SNDK), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Massey Energy (MEE), Parker Hannifin (PH), Estée Lauder (EL), Time Warner (TWX), CSX (CSX) and Norfolk Southern (NSC).

Raised their dividend to 0.34 an increase of 6.0% payable on March 10 to shareholders of record on Feb. 6.

From a recent Mad Money show:"No, I'm not recommending any of the rails. Even though they're at their lows, they're too levered to commodities and autos."

Itching to buy the rails here, as they are all on the ropes. They have come down gigantically and are perceived as companies that are just getting crushed by the weakening economy.

It's a continual crushing for Norfolk Southern (NSC), Union Pacific (UNP), Burlington Northern (BNI) and CSX (CSX), all excellent, well-run companies. All have big declines in traffic and all have had hot-money share bases, particularly UNP and CSX. The latter, in particular, has hedge fund money up the wazoo, and it was interesting to see how a hedge fund that is on the board got in trouble with the short-swing profit rules that don't allow insiders to sell stock at a profit within six months.

To me, the group represents the epitome, though, of why it is so hard to buy. Whenever I buy an economically sensitive stock -- and are these ever economically sensitive -- I want protection from the vicissitudes of this vicious market. That means dividends, and without accidentally high yields that represent a nice tradeoff vs. Treasuries, I think you are at the mercy of hedge fund sellers and mutual fund sellers. That means you have to wait, maybe even appreciably, despite the flirtations with the 52-week lows before you can pull the trigger on these.

Obviously, it is so rough out there that if you buy say, CSX, with a 2.9% yield, you could be taking your life into your hands every time the estimates -- which are most likely too high -- get cut. In fact, I wouldn't be able to touch it until it gets to $22 using my discipline, which most likely means I am going to miss the darned thing.

That's the price, however, of the discipline of buying even the finest companies, like the rails, which are true moneymakers.

This is a market where you need more than just a "good company," particularly because the estimates that you might be betting on to "create" a price-to-earnings multiple could prove to be dead wrong.

These companies are linked to car, timber, coal, chemical, steel and fertilizer freight. Every one of those commodities is on a remarkable downswing. That, to me, means, don't touch 'em until you have that support.

You sure don't have it now. I say, no thanks.

Gartman said he is sticking to a "boring" strategy of buying stocks with dividends and infrastructure plays that have been around for years like Deere(DE), Dow Chemical (DOW), Alcoa (AA), GE (GE), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), ConocoPhillips (COP) and US Steel(X) and get an average of 5.95% in dividend, and have an average P/E ratio of 5.7.

Norfolk Southern(NSC) and other rail companies are "locked in a lot of deals, but remember, you're shipping coal -- Peabody(BTU) says coal's hanging in, but I don't think that could happen -- you're shipping fertilizer, obviously lumber's not going anywhere, oil's not going anywhere," Cramer said. "I mean, what are you shipping that's going to hold up next year?"

IBD rated A+

BNI IS A BETTER LONG.