Short Interest Ratio: 19.88

Investors for the long term should look at M&T, with its consistent earnings growth and deft hand at managing small-business clients. The stock could see at least 30% upside.

Sell - Price 54.44 on July 21
by Maxim Group

While revenue trends were good...earnings were aided by reserve run-off....Credit quality continues to decline. MTB Reported second-quarter diluted EPS of 36 cents. Our 2Q estimate was 58 cents, and consensus expectation was 49 cents. On an operating, recurring basis, we estimate EPS to be 63 cents, which excludes nonrecurring items of 35 cents-a-share Provident Bancshares acquisition charges, 17 cents a share in FDIC [Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.] special assessment, and a 13-cents-a-share asset-impairment charge, offset by 38 cents in earnings benefit from reserve run-offs. Management views operating EPS as 79 cents, which excludes the Provident charge....The Provident acquisition added $6.3 billion in assets, $5 billion in deposits. Reserves ratios declined to 1.62% (versus 1.73% in the first quarter), mostly reflecting lower reserves for incremental loan growth.... Net-interest income benefited on margin expansion...loan-loss provision was lower than Q1 levels...while operating efficiencies improved....We are lowering our '09 [EPS] estimate to $2.09 from $2.32, factoring in, for the second half, a higher diluted share count, flat earning asset growth, [net-interest-margin] improvement and incremental efficiency improvements. We are lowering our 2010 estimate to $3, from $3.40. Maintaining Sell, given dilution risk [from] low capital ratios, lower earnings outlook, and MTB's premium valuation. MTB trades at 2.2 times 2Q09 tangible book value...[versus] 1.5 times for peers. Our 40 target assumes a 1.6 times valuation on tangible book value. Market cap: $6.4 billion.

6.2

In Line - Price 55.96 on Dec. 23
by Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller
M&T will acquire Provident Bankshares in an all-stock deal valued at $401 million (exchange ratio, 0.172). The purchase price per share is 10.50 -- a 37% premium to PBKS' 20-day average price, 1.4 times stated tangible book....The deal's expected to close 2Q09. [We see the deal's] premium as surprising, given the stress [in] Provident's...investment securities. We're lowering our '08E-EPS to $5.64 from $5.78, [due to] higher credit costs, and cutting 2009E-EPS to $4.30 from $5.40 to account for the deal, higher credit costs, and [Troubled Asset Relief Program] capital. We're reducing our target to 50 (1.6 times '09 projected TB). Market cap: $6.2 billion.

They Just Don't Get Daily Dips!: Marek Fuchs takes Reuters to task for calling a resilient market sagging, even though it was down a grand total of .4%.

Click here to watch the video.

3.8%

Focus List -- Price 85.86 on April 16
by McAdams Wright Ragen
1Q08 EPS was $1.82, with a 26-cent benefit from Visa IPO. Excluding it, results [matched] consensus $1.56... . Fundamentals for the quarter were ... quite solid, all things considered; we expect MTB to continue performing strongly by sticking to its knitting... . Our two-year target is 129, based on 16.6 times our FY09 EPS estimate and 2 times our FY09 projected book value of about 66. Market cap: $9.5 billion.

M&T Bank (MTB) was upgraded from Sell to Hold, Citigroup said. $75 price target. Company missed fourth quarter expectations, but underlying credit trends remain steady. Estimates still cut through 2009, to reflect a lower net interest margin.

M&T Bank (MTB) was downgraded from Neutral to Sell, Merrill Lynch said. Company faces higher credit losses in 2008. There's also the potential for a sizable mezzanine sub-prime CDO writedown.