Play on oil stocks

Hold - Price 31.97 on Nov.3
by Soleil Securities

Marathon reported 3Q09 operating earn ings of 61 cents a share versus our 56 cents-a-share forecast, and First Call consensus expectation of 57 cents, with the upside to our estimate due to slightly better-than-expected upstream earnings. ...We're raising our 2009 earnings estimate from $1.95/share to $2.05/share. We maintain our Hold rating and $35-a-share discounted-free-cash-flow-derived price target. Market cap: $26.2 billion.

Oil? Failed to go below the key $79 level and that's enough to ignite buying in the group. Maybe that great quarter from Marathon (MRO) is helping? Or maybe it is all the deal chatter I am hearing.

I’m bearish on oil, explains Deutsche analyst Paul Sankey. The winter forecast doesn’t seem terribly fierce demand is falling and supplies are certainly adequate. Also Marathon (MRO) has a new refinery coming on line. If you're looking for a trade, consider long ConocoPhillips (COP) but as a restructuring story and outright short Valero (VLO) because refiner margins are shrinking, he says.

seems to hold value

UNDERVALUED

This is his refiner pick.

good company

From a recent Mad Money show:"I think Marathon is a buy. I think you wait until $25, then buy, buy, buy."

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lost big

Bought it because the company claimed it would split into two companies. MRO has withdrawn its plan until the market shows some stability

strong energy

It was going great guns when I bought it.

growth

DIDIDENDS TOO LOW