Market Perform - Price 62.81 on Nov. 23
by Raymond James

Medco has targeted 2010 earnings-per-share growth of 17% to 22%, with a 5% to 10% uptick in Ebitda per adjusted script. The company remains focused on influencing the practice of medicine through therapeutic resource centers (TRCs), pharmacogenomics, and targeted research, [using]... these resources to close gaps in care....After Medco research identified the potential danger of mixing Plavix and heartburn pills, the company implemented new protocols within its TRCs, reducing the risk by 33%. Guidance remains unchanged with amortization-adjusted EPS in the range of $2.80 to $2.82 for 2009 and $3.28 to $3.38 for 2010. We are maintaining our 2009, 2010, and 2011 EPS estimates of $2.84, $3.35, and $4, respectively. We reiterate our Market Perform, given the challenging economic conditions and the company's exposure to retiree drug-spend[ing], the highest among the Big Three [pharmacy-benefit managers]. Market cap: $30.4 billion.

growth

"Medco has advanced 47% this year, outpacing major U.S. indices. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, a premium to the market and health care service peers. Medco doesn't pay dividends." Read more here.

Earnings up 26%

Stock buybacks, another type of investor reward, also are at an all-time low since S&P started keeping tabs on them in 1998's first quarter. For the second quarter this year (the most recent data available), S&P 500 companies spent only $24.2 billion to repurchase their shares, down 72% from $87.9 billion in April-June 2008, and an 86% drop from the record $172 billion spent on buybacks during 2007's third quarter. "At the height of the buyback bonanza," said Silverblatt, "companies spent 180% more on stock repurchases than they did on dividends. Now buyback spending is just half that of dividends." On the bright side, several big companies continued repurchasing their shares. ExxonMobil (XOM) spent the most, $5.2 billion. Wal-Mart (WMT) was second, dishing out $1.9 billion. Other notables were Family Dollar Stores (FDO), Staples (SPLS) and Medco Health Solutions (MHS).

Read more here.

Because of these weakened reforms, Cramer said it's OK to buy health care stocks, including HMO's like Wellpoint (WLP), Medco Health (MHS) and Express Scripts (ESRX), a stock which he owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS.

"Medco is up 31% this year, beating major U.S. indices. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23, a premium to the market and health care peers. The company doesn't pay dividends." Read more here.

I let the stocks tell me. Specifically, I am watching Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Conoco (COP), Occidental (OXY), Medco Health (MHS), Express Scripts (ESRX) and Colgate (CL - commentary - Trade Now). All had been acting great on up days and not so badly on down days. If they change patterns and get hit hard, then maybe something serious is upon us. Otherwise, 3% to 5% decline ahead. But I don't think more than that.

Or how about MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS)? When I had this company on my show a couple of weeks ago, it said it was friend of reform, not a foe. Totally true. But it didn't matter. It was in the health care group. The company intimated that numbers were too low. Nobody cared. Now it blows numbers away. Mark my words: If the pattern fits, you should buy Medco right here at its 52-week high. Right here. 2011 and 2012 are built in.

Up only slightly since I bought it. No dividend. PE 20.2

forcing consumer to use mail order

Too Long to Play out

GROWTH