"There is a gigantic tug of war playing out here between the homes being pumped out by Lennar (LEN) or Pulte (PHM) or Horton (DHI) and the homes owned by Bank of America (BAC) or Wells Fargo (WFC) or JPMorgan (JPM) -- repossessed homes that could really kill any recovery. The homebuilders cannot make the houses cheaply enough to compete against the foreclosed homes. That's terrific." "We Want Sales of New Homes to Dry Up," 6-24-09

"This is not a clarion call to buy Toll Brothers or Lennar (LEN) or KB Home (KBH). It is a clarion call to buy JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC). The latter may have to do a deal; the former two have done them. (I would buy JPMorgan Chase on the broken print, which I don't think will last.)" ("Pending Home Sales Data Signal a Bottom," 6-2-09)

The closed-end fund's holdings include Western Union (WU), which operates in Cuba, and home builder Lennar (LEN), which Herzfeld says has a business plan for the island.

Against the Grain: Sell Housing!: Marek Fuchs warns traders not to assume troubled housing companies will be taken over.
Click here to watch the video.

Stock Wrap: The Real Story, March 31 Stocks in New York rebounded on the last day of the first quarter, with tech and financials at the forefront, after the week opened with a steep selloff on Wall Street. Click here to watch the video.

There is a nice housing starts number this morning, the strongest jump since 1990, which was forecasted by a small bump in the stocks of Lennar (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL) and KB Homes (KBH). Huge increase in multifamily units.

“The drumbeat is picking up. Production decline is slowing down as we see a small rebound in rail traffic and an end to inventory builds. There is a nice housing starts number this morning, the strongest jump since 1990, which was forecasted by a small bump in the stocks of Lennar (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL) and KB Homes (KBH). Huge increase in multifamily units.
Retail sales were up more than expected in February, hence the upgrades in Home Depot (HD), Best Buy (BBY) and Target (TGT) by Jefferies. Unemployment claims are not getting worse.
Commodities are rising: Witness the run in copper, manifested by Freeport McMoRan (FCX), and the run in oil, signaled by the bottoms in Chevron (CVX) and Transocean (RIG). Bank profits are on the upswing, which is why Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and General Electric (GE) are bottoming.
Therefore, the bottom is in. The economy bottomed last month and we are now going to go up. The rally is the logical extension of the bottom and the bottom will become obvious to all shortly. The stimulus is kicking in, lending is picking up, mergers and acquisitions are back and the TALF plan is upon us.

“I get it. The numbers are much worse with the revisions. So people don't "like the action."
And now they remember that we are overbought. Plus, Lennar's (LEN) "Ponzi scheme" charge and the miserable numbers and horrible projections at KB Home (KBH) make people feel that all of these mortgage declines don't mean anything.
It's funny, I can more easily craft a positive housing story off the cost of mortgage money -- and I don't believe the Lennar story, although as soon as you see "Ponzi scheme" these days you freak out -- than I can for tech.
Looks like I am not alone today.
Yet the day is early. I am taking Bob Byrne's guidance on where the bears can take us before we bounce.
The reason I think that today's a tough day to rally is that the oil leadership is not going to be here with nat gas collapsing ahead of big winter storms, oil not holding $40 and Exxon (XOM) seemingly going back to $75 and not $80 -- all of those big oil stocks always trade toward a particular strike. Chevron's (CVX) bad news is actually affecting the stock! Egads!
Yesterday someone tried to run up the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH) in my face. The puts I suggested buying looked like losers.
Nah.
They are still the best place in town. That group's just started getting hit. Sell 'em.”

3.8

Cramer said with mortgage rates likely to hit 4%, he's also warming up to the homebuilders, including KB Homes (KBH), Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lennar (LEN).

Come down to South FL and see for yourself. The market is not bottoming here, it's getting worse by the day.

too early in housing downturn

bad housing mkt

bad industry

Current Housing/Credit Slump

No bottom yet in sight for homebuilders in general and will be very sensitive if the Fed does not drop rates quickly enough.

no where to go

Price targets in the group are too high and the group is vulnerable to another leg down.

CEO died, Ship without a rudder. Estimates are getting cut in half. People have no idea how fast homebuilders can hemmorage money. This is just the start.

IF you think housing is doing well just look around at all the houses in your neighborhood that are for sale and have been for sale for month on end, I dont like it shot it for a while