Hold - Price 22.52 on June 9
by Wedbush Morgan

We believe ITG will continue to be a solid investment in the growth of global-trading volumes and...a leading candidate for early bull-market success. But we expect less than trend-line results in the next [bear-market] stages. ITG U.S. volume of 4.15 billion or 208 million/day [marks an increase of] 17% over May '08 and 5.5% over April on a per-day basis. This is less than our 4.5 billion expectation, but more than the 3.9 billion we would have anticipated, based on market volumes and April market-share levels. We estimate that ITG's market share increased from 2.22% in April to 2.34% in May. We believe the higher growth relative to overall market-volume levels is driven by increased activity of ITG's traditional full-service institutional clients, as retail investors return to the market and stop withdrawing their existing investments. We're maintaining 2009 EPS estimate of $1.43, as market share gains offset weaker than expected consolidated volume growth. However, we are increasing our 2010 EPS estimate to $1.51 from $1.48, as anticipated market-share gains flow through to 2010. Maintain Hold and 20 target...based on a 14 times multiple on our FY 2009 EPS estimate. We believe this multiple is in line with current market multiples, balancing the short-term risks with the longer-term opportunity. Market cap: $982 million.

Buy - Price 19.35 on Dec. 9
by Sandler O'Neill

ITG, a full-service [U.S. and overseas] trade-execution firm, uses technology to lower trading costs. We're raising 4Q08 estimate while maintaining Buy rating. With November U.S. volumes above our expectations, we're raising our 4Q08 EPS estimate to 59 cents, from 55 cents; our estimate assumes that U.S. December volumes decrease 20% from November. We're also increasing our full-year 2008 EPS estimate to $2.54 from $2.50. We're [maintaining] our 2009 estimate of $2.45. Our 25 price target is based on a 10-times multiple of our 2009 estimate. Market cap: $849 million.

Goldman said it is upgrading Investment Technology Group (ITG) to Neutral from Sell based on valuation. Stock down 19% since January, and now trades at 14 times 2008 earnings estimate. Note slowing U.S. equity volumes and increasing competition. Price target at $45.

Investment Tech. Group (ITG) was downgraded to Market Perform, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said. Company had a strong first quarter, but will struggle to keep outperforming throughout the year.

Hedge-fund manager D.E. Shaw & Co. cut its holdings to about 1.54 million shares (3.5%), from the 4.4 million (9.9%) reported in September 2007.

D.E. Shaw & Co. raised its stake to 4.4 million shares (9.9%) from the 3.43 million (7.7%) it had reported possessing on Sept. 12.

4.8

may be bought

From Barron's 6-18-07:

D.E. Shaw Laminar Portfolios said it wants the company to evaluate strategic alternatives. Shaw urged the board to consider a sale of some or all of ITG's businesses to a strategic or financial buyer. D.E. Shaw owns about 2.73 million shares (6.2%).

"...acquiring Investment Technology Group would be more strategic because its main asset is a broker-neutral trading platform. ITG is mulling setting up an equities trading platform in Europe."

I am short and the chart is looking bullish.