Long-Term Buy - Price 12 on Dec. 2
by Hilliard Lyons

This top-10 home-furnishings retailer's sales model is center[ed] on in-home design advice; it also offers several third-party credit options. ETH manufactures most of its line [in North American factories]. ...To reflect the impact of declining consumer confidence, [spending and] credit...we're reducing our fiscal-year '09 sales-rate forecast from minus-11% to minus-18%, and our EPS estimate from $1.64 to $1.13. We're reducing FY10E-EPS from $1.82 to $1.40. ...We believe ETH entered the quarter with inventory levels on the high side...yet we forecast ETH to remain modestly free-cash-flow-positive after the dividend (yielding: 8.3%) through FY10; net of cash, debt to total capitalization was 21%. We're reducing our target from 25 to 17, where the shares would trade at double-digit discounts to the five-year medians of [enterprise value]/Ebitda and forward price/earnings ratio on FY10 results. Market cap: $346 million.

Maybe even some heavy duty ones: Black & Decker (BDK), Fortune Brands (FO) and the dreaded twosome, Masco (MAS) and Ethan Allen (ETH) because the dividends feel, uh, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)-like.

First, let me say that of the ones that are overly shorted, I like Ethan Allen (ETH), Sears (SHLD), Bankrate (RATE) and Panera (PNRA), all profitable, all either doing well or could turn, and all do well if the housing market turns.

Underperform - Price 26.79 on July 23
by Morgan Keegan

ETH reported Q4 operating EPS of 45 cents [versus 65 cents], a penny shy of our estimate of 46 cents but ahead of consensus by two cents. After a prior warning that Q4 sales would be below expectations, the company posted what we believe is its worst [same-store-sales] result ever, down 11%. ...ETH did not issue quantifiable guidance for future results. Based on recent financial results across the industry, we believe the macro environment in the furniture-manufacturing and retail industry is deteriorating further. Market cap: $769 million.

7/8/2008

30.7

21.6

My nephew's name is Ethan

Downgraded by Goldman Sachs from Neutral to Sell

Downgraded by Matrix Research from Buy to Hold