Into Black Friday, I’d take a balanced barbell approach, says JP Morgan analyst Charles Grom. What I mean by that is own a Walmart (WMT) and a Dollar Tree (DLTR). But on the other side of that I’d also own Kohl’s (KSS) and Macy’s (M). The department stores have come out of favor and I think the smart trade is to go long those stocks into Black Friday.

Dollar Tree has rallied only 29% in the past year, to 48.20. Sales have jumped 12%, versus a 3% rise in inventory. The discounter, which sells household staples, including food, has benefited from deflationary pressure on costs, and an influx of new, price-conscious shoppers. According to Berman, second-quarter operating margins expanded by 1.66 percentage points, while sales at stores open at least a year climbed by 6%. Dollar Tree "is doing a phenomenal job of merchandising and layout and the customer clearly loves it," Berman wrote. RBC Capital Markets recently initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, and expects the shares to rise 18% in the next 12 months.

"You've got this incredible all-at-once retail thing going on," he said, which is sending stocks across the board up, including Target (TGT), Williams Sonoma (WSM), Tiffany (TIF), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Family Dollar (FDO)." Stop Trading!, Aug. 21

In the latter theory the big durable good numbers and existing-home numbers are "in" the stock market. I say that because some of my hardest-hit names are directly linked to a stronger economy -- 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Deere (DE), Fluor (FLR) and General Electric (GE) -- while the recession stocks are rocking: Procter & Gamble (PG), Celgene (CELG), General Mills (GIS), Pepsi (PEP), Coca-Cola (KO) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT). Worse, Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Family Dollar (FDO) are on the move.

On "Stop Trading!" today, Cramer said that retail stocks are going up across the board, from Dollar Tree and Family Dollar (FDO) to higher-end companies such as Williams Sonoma (WSM), which he said "can't be going up if people are in a recession."

Good store to shop for financially strapped people.

Family Dollar, Big Lots, Dollar Tree? When you are really in a jam you can go to these places. I don't care for Big Lots but I like my Dollar Tree, and if you are on a tight, tight budget, there simply isn't a reason why you wouldn't shop for food at Family Dollar.

From a recent Mad Money show:"All the negative stuff is a vicious overreaction. I think they're OK, but I like Family Dollar Stores (FDO) even better."

Dollar Tree's (DLTR) a tough one because the trade-down theory is at work everywhere except, perhaps, at the ultimate trade-down. I wonder if it is execution, and I know that Family Dollar (FDO) has some margin improvement to come, so it might make a good buy down 2.

Goldman's addition of Dollar Tree (DLTR), a great performer, up 68% year-to-date to its conviction sell list, is another example of downgrades gone wild.

FDO A BETTER PLAY