I do not know how many of these big natural gas companies -- Chesapeake (CPK), Apache (APA), Anadarko (APC), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), Ultra Petroleum (UPL), XTO Energy (XTO) and Devon (DVN) -- can make their earnings with natural gas at $3.60/MMBTU and going lower because of the end of the winter heating season.

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Anthony Carpet, the broker's co-head of Americas Investment Research, says it benefited from an overweighting in energy and basic materials, as well as technology and exchange stocks. Winners included Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), EOG Resources (EOG), US Steel (X), Brazilian mining giant Vale (RIO), Nasdaq, CME Group (CME), Research In Motion (RIMM) and Google (GOOG). Nasdaq, CME and RIM are now off the list.

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To me, the one that I have been buying down here, Cabot Oil and Gas (COG), makes the most sense as it has the Marcellus shale properties. But there's another reason: before natural gas crashed, this one got in the window and raised a lot of cheap capital-- literally 50% higher than current prices.

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“Every now and then days like this happen. Days where it is so crazy, where the selling never ends and the buying never ends. Where the sellers just keep reloading and the buyer just keep buying.

Some of it seems like short-covering panic and some of it seems like sellers who can’t take the pain any more. As I watched Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), a very good company, go down more than 10% today, a company that priced a gigantic piece of merchandise 30% higher a fortnight ago, I am astonished at the market's inefficiency.

When I see Nucor (NUE) decline 10% on a good quarter and conservative guidance, I marvel at how ridiculous things are. Sure you can say if you look at a three-year chart "this is the end of the bubble." But how about value? How about the fact that COG is making much more money than it ever has and is unlikely, given the big shift toward natural gas, ever to make as little money as it did a few years ago.

There is no more dumping of steel, and there are not a lot of Greenfield steel mills being built anywhere, certainly no more than there were when NUE was at $79 instead of $59, but that doesn't matter either.

Yes, the rate of increase may not be increasing as it should, but the value creation at both companies is astonishing and not going away.

The value destruction at a Bank of America (BAC) and a Comerica (CMA) isn't going away, either.

These are all just giant proxies for runaway sentiment, with the sentiment being run by the thousands of hedge funds that are operating on the market daily.

But let's play it out. Let's say the big run in oil is over. Let's say it retreats to $100 or even $80. Nucor's earnings could be huge. Let's say natural gas drops to $9. COG will make a gigantic amount of money.

Remember, the people selling oil might think the bubble is bursting, but the people who actually are users of oil like Nucor have had to raise price endlessly because of energy. If energy falls because the bubble has burst, it will not have to roll back the costs, but its demand will stay strong.

Won't Cabot get hit further? I don't know; when nat gas hit $9 last time before breaking down to $8 and then rallying, the stock was higher than it is now. Of course you could say that that was $9 going to $13. I just look at it at plain nine and say, hey, at $9 the thing belongs higher.

This is a vicious emotional market. Things that worked last week have wiped you out this week. Things that killed you last week made your year. But nobody is this good.

I think that steel will stay strong, oil and gas will be fine and the banks are not so hot until housing stops depreciating. I would buy stocks accordingly and sell them equally accordingly.”