I let the stocks tell me. Specifically, I am watching Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Conoco (COP), Occidental (OXY), Medco Health (MHS), Express Scripts (ESRX) and Colgate (CL - commentary - Trade Now). All had been acting great on up days and not so badly on down days. If they change patterns and get hit hard, then maybe something serious is upon us. Otherwise, 3% to 5% decline ahead. But I don't think more than that.

Aug. 10 blog post:
"Take Procter. Here's a company that's not doing well, not well at all. It has expensive products around the globe, with Unilever (UN) and Colgate (CL) taking share and nipping everywhere. Yet the expensive stuff's still selling, just at a little less than last year."

Meanwhile safety's awful, and Procter & Gamble (PG) once again reports a bad number. Given that Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Clorox (CLX) reported great numbers - yes, they were great -- and got poleaxed, who the heck knows about when and where PG will settle? And what the heck happened to PG anyway? I think their whole lineup got too expensive.

Colgate-Palmolive (CL) got crushed last week off of what really was a great quarter (biggest weak-dollar play, too).

recommende

safety

Lastly, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Hershey (HSY) are the stocks to buy for anyone feeling a bit more cautious. These are classic defensive names for anyone who is not as bullish on the economy.

Cramer: America On Sale: Jim Cramer tells investors what to buy on the back of the weakened dollar and sovereign downgrade talk.
Click here to watch the video.

(Put Colgate-Palmolive (CL) on your screen to test the thesis of options vs. rotation, as this one is going to $65 or $60.)

They also reach for Colgate (CL), although here you really should be thinking about a euro vs. dollar trade, and Colgate is a Latin America vs. dollar trade

OVER VALUED

STILL HASN'T COME BACK

it is down