boring, yet productive

Philadelphia-based Crown Holdings (CCK), with 20% of the U.S. beverage-can business, also had a banner third quarter, beating estimates. Like Ball, it operates globally. Crown generates 55% of its revenue in Europe, where it controls 46% of the food-can market. Crown, too, is sanguine about the near term; it expects to generate at least $800 million of operating profits this year, and close to $400 million of free cash flow. Alton Stump, an analyst at Longbow Research who calls Crown his top pick in the sector, thinks the company could earn $1.74 a share this year on revenue of $8.5 billion and $2.03 in 2009. Crown reported $1.31 last year, on $7.7 billion in sales. Stump sees the stock, which trades for 16, or nine times '08 estimates, reaching 38 in a year. To get there, Crown will have to overcome investors' concerns about its debt-heavy balance sheet -- debt accounts for more than 90% of total capital. Also, a stronger U.S. dollar lowers the value of the company's euro-based earnings. But such fears arguably are in the stock, which is down 38% in the past year. Stump notes that Crown is paying down debt; net debt totaled $3.2 billion as of Sept. 30.

A good example of the kind of stock that Osterweis favors is Crown Holdings (CCK), his fund's fourth-largest holding. He bought shares of the beverage-can maker in 2004, when they were under $9 and the company was struggling with a huge potential asbestos liability and rising commodity costs. The stock is now around 20.

From a recent Mad Money show:

"Tough stock, it's had a good run, I'm going to say don't buy here."

These Mid-Caps Don't Need Private Equity to Thrive
Thomas Kolefas of the TIAA-CREF Mid-Cap Value Fund says stocks like Darden Restaurants and Crown Holdings will not only survive, but thrive, even without private equity players bidding them up.

Click here to watch the video.

CNBC..............22.10...........-3.28%............10/16/07

Crown Holdings, Inc.

Crown Holdings, Inc.

50 sma above and 200s below. CCK may just bounce around there for a while but if it could decisively break the 200s it could be ugly.

growth in soft drinks