Buy - Price 55.09 on Nov. 24
by Sterne Agee

The acquisition of Agriliance...will add 24 retail outlets, including 18 farm centers and six satellites, strengthening [grain-producer] Agrium's geographic presence in Texas and New Mexico. Agrium [says] the company generates more than $150 million in revenues, and we estimate that the [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] margin on this business is high single-digit, given the location of the acquisition, as Southern retailers tend to have a lower margin profile than those in the Corn Belt. Our 59 target for Agrium is based on our 15-year discounted-cash-flow model. Our model projects free cash flow to the firm, then discounts these cash flows at [our] determined cost of capital; adds back the value of excess cash; and deducts debt, minority interest, and pension obligations to calculate an equity value per share. Market cap: $8.9 billion.

Will rise with inflation, demand will increase, farmers can only put off fertilizer for so long.

rising market

You have to eat right?

AG should be good this time of year.

Buy - Price C$45.87 on March 31
by Dundee Capital Markets

Continue to Buy Agrium [which produces and markets agricultural nutrients, industrial products, and specialty products]. We forecast that Agrium's takeover of CF Industries [a fertilizer maker] is accretive in 2010 and beyond and a strong strategic fit; [the combo] would bolster Agrium's share price over the medium and longer term. If this transaction does not come to fruition, we still see significant upside to Agrium's price....Our target of C$61 is based on a blended multiple (using a target price/earnings ratio of 4, and enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of four times...on our 2010 estimates, representing a discount of 10% to our [net-asset-value] valuation of C$67.20/share (C$1 is U.S. 80 cents). Market cap: C$7.4 billion.

good seasonal stock

You need two leaders here -- tech and banks -- and you cannot have the leaders be just commodity plays, because we know how that works out. A market led by Mosaic (MOS), Agrium (AGU), Freeport (FCX) and Conoco (COP) is a market that ultimately gives up its gains, but a market led by Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) has something worth following.

China Watch: Food for Thought: Although some may be negative on China right now for varying reasons, James Altucher explains why certain food stocks are the safest way to play this market right now.
Click here to watch the video.

higher highs

must move again

irriational