Just updating on my favorite short AGIX. I posted awhile back that this stock was a
disaster in waiting. It has been a great short but I have now covered my position today.
It was pointed out to me in October and I watched it a bit before entering my position. I
do ultimately think the company goes out of business but wanted to move on now that it has
gone from the 12s to under 3 in a few months. Anyone have any other shorts they are
looking at or are in? Would appreciate any direction. Thanks.

By Buchanan's thinking, the stock's about $2 away from its peak, assuming someone is
willing to overpay for the company. Driscoll says it's already overvalued.

My pick for most overvalued stock is Nutrisystem (NTRI). I am anticipating the 2006
results call hopefully to see the key CAC (Customer Acq. Costs) metric losing steam along
with the topline growth slowing down. This is the biggest growth/momentum stock out there
and I am just waiting for that first piece of news that shows the slow down starting,
that is when I enter into a short trade position.

James; Novastar is sure interesting as a short for me being a hometown KC guy (and being
severely punished regarding LEND position; OUCH). BY the way, your Cramer interveiw was
very enjoyable; you two make a great team discussing relevent topics regarding investing
and money management. I've never looked at NOvastar filing; but I have friend of a friend
that works for them in the disposal of foreclosed properties; in his opinion (FWIW) the
Atlanta area has had major problems with regard to bad appraisals; tons of crap loans from
that area. To promote James' writings his book "Trade like Warren Buffett" is a great
diagnosis of Buffett the hedge fund years. It's one of my favorites! anmd don't forget
"Real Money". (I'm a long time subscriber).

Great job DJK1, are there any other biotech stocks that might have trouble on FDA? How did
you know about that one? 20% in a day from a short is not so bad.

Omid, what do you think of NYX?

Great job DJK1, are there any other biotech stocks that might have trouble on FDA? How did
you know about that one? 20% in a day from a short is not so bad.

Omid, what do you think of NYX?

Great job DJK1, are there any other biotech stocks that might have trouble on FDA? How did
you know about that one? 20% in a day from a short is not so bad.

Omid, what do you think of NYX?

Great job DJK1, are there any other biotech stocks that might have trouble on FDA? How did
you know about that one? 20% in a day from a short is not so bad.

Omid, what do you think of NYX?

I think the most overvalued stock is the holding company for the Nymex (NMX). Once the
dust settles on this one, the joke will be how on its IPO day the stock went through the
roof while its cash cow futures contract in crude oil made a new 2 year low. There is a
perfect storm of competitive and cyclical pressure coming down on this exchange this year.


On the one hand, the Intercontinental Exchange is stealing a ton of market share from it.
The ICE WTI contract, which is identical to the NYMEX crude oil contract, now trades 3
times the electronic volume of the popular NYMEX oil mini, even though the ICE contract is
twice as big (1000barrel vs 500). To put that into perspective, 6 months ago the NYMEX
contract was trading 3 times the volume, and the relationship has now flipped with ICE
gaining more volume everyday. The ICE does not have an active Nat Gas futures contract,
but its a big player in the spot market, so an all electronic Nat Gas contract that steals
volume from the NYMEX is only a matter of time away (same goes for heating oil and
gasoline)

The COMEX division of the NYMEX used to be the place to go for trading in precious metals
like Gold and Silver, but no longer. Only a year after their introduction, electronic gold
and silver contacts traded on the CBOT now trade more volume then their New York
predecessors.

Now that the ICE has bought the NYBOT, a straight up price war is heating up between it
and the NYMEX on pretty much everything, and that is always bad for everyone involved.


Lastly, Crude Oil is $20 off its high. Natural gas is less than half of what it was when
Katrina hit. Gold is over $100 from its high and Silver is more than 3 bucks away. The
commodity boom is over. All these exchanges saw a surge in volume because in the past few
years, "commodity funds" became known as a separate asset class and their assets under
management (and thus trading activity) skyrocketed. Now that trend is reversing. Commodity
funds are seeing net redemptions every month and many are shutting their doors. Places
like the CME or the CBOT are diversified enough in equity index and fixed income futures
that they don%u2019t need to purely rely on commodity futures to grow. The NYMEX
doesn%u2019t, oil and other energy products is all it has, or had.

Needed to post that shares of AtheroGenics (AGIX) headed south BIG TIME today after it
announced that data from a key clinical trial would not likely be released until later
this quarter. Not a good sign as I pointed out yesterday. This stock is going to ZERO so
it's not too late. It's not just the trial failing either. Company is not stable
otherwise. Take a look and do some work on it.

Last edited on: 01-09-2007 11:18 am