ASTI is a good short not for the above reasons, but because the madness of a crowd drove
it up 90% in minutes and way way past the $5 per share of the big buy. Confusion and
madness led to a bubble. Quick and soon to pop. That is a good short if you can get
shares. If brave you catch it long and sell and buyy but don't hold the bag at the days
end.

I short when a stock is broken. When it is so bad, that even the longs know they are in
trouble and begin to sell-off. So bad that funds take turns or together get in on
manufactured Pump and Dumps to get rid of shares to shorts they can squeeze. So broken
the hedge funds are all over them short. So bad you only hear real bad news and fake
rumors of someone willing to bail out the company and rumors of a buyer for distressed
shares. Rumors to hide the truth. Lies or silience from the company. So bad the SEC, FBI
and even the politicians weighing in. So bad potential losses extend beyond our shores to
other markets, ie packaged mortgage backed securities either in default or because of
their terms inevitable. So broken hedge funds who bought in long in any way are being
wiped out. So broken even real people are talking about them. So bad, you simply do not
cover. So bad you don't have to bash, you simply wait. So bad, one by one they go pink
and BK. So bad you don't dare cover because there will be no shorts left to borrow again
ever. So bad you can short them to zero. So bad they pull others with them like a sink
hole. So bad you can hop from one to the next every week or so covering one near it's end
to hop on the next and add to other shorts before there are no shares left to borrow. So
bad you double your account every 2 weeks. So bad you make an average of $10 per share
every time you cover even if there is a few dollars left to BK, you just move on to the
next before you can't. So bad they don't report earnings. So bad the Feds are on the Wall
Street House's for bogus upgrades.

So bad the equities markets sell-off in panic and to cover porential losses from the bad
debts.

But you don't ever short the survivors like CountryWide. You don't short the whole sector.

Last edited on: 03-14-2007 04:54 pm

When do you start shorting? Right when it moves down like .5%? -.5% happens a lot, so is
it more like whenever the market falls by 1.25%?

I think it means selling short

W.G. Lowe: "Never blindly play follow the leader and never think we can predict the
market. Clearly I'm mostly a momentum trader!"

What? Being a momentum investor contradicts your own beliefs, correct? If you follow
momentum, then are you not playing "follow the leader"?

I'm confused...

Also, I've always wondered this (I'm not being facetious, I just really don't know): if
you're a momentum investor, and the market goes down two % (a la today), do you just bail
out of the market as a whole? If so, does that mean you just wait for the market to
already make its move back up before you get in?

Last edited on: 03-18-2007 12:40 am

Good for you two of you. Nice trade selling AAPL before the stampede out of equities
today. I took a hit in my contest account, however on a positive note, as I was already
90% short or long in the QID, I am up 11% for the day in the real world. Not that I
believe I can win the game at this point, I have not given up hope. BTW who was the
official winner last week?

Last edited on: 03-13-2007 03:54 pm

I am playing the "Are you diversified" game in shorting several subprimes, today and when
that gig is over back to blue chips for me.
I am not shorting CountryWide as it is my opinion that they will do well and pick-up lost
business from the failing subprimes. In a few weeks when they are beaten down,
indescriminately with the shaky lenders, I may buy CountryWide.

Last edited on: 03-13-2007 12:56 pm

I'm definitely here to learn! Although I am just doing personal investing with "play
money" (I let the professionals handle the main investments) I definitely hope to make a
few $$$. I've gotten some great tips here and then of course always go off to do my own
research; however, one tip I received here did alert me to a stock which I actually
purchased a few of.

I guess what works for me is to conserve and grow my money and look for and ponce upon
opps, but be ready to bail, or if it isn't too late filp and change my approach if I am
wrong. I try to cut losses quick before I lose my dough.

I just started doing this about a year and don't have much capital so I'm taking more of a
long-term approach. I've made a couple of quick trades tho. The most successful was in
CIEN during the summer. Flipped it for 6% in a few hours. It was a great feeling. As I put
more money into the acocunt over time, I want to trade more and more.

Last edited on: 03-12-2007 08:45 pm