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CTRP Conference Call Notables
posted by kabirm on 2 months ago
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CTRP Conference Call Notables

Financial Notables:
1.strong quarter of ctrip, a snowstorm effected in the industry
2. revenue growth at 47% despite the bad weather
3. hotel business grew 28%
4. package tour business grew at 67%
5.we continue to gain market share
6.number of hotels with allotment rooms has increased to 60% of the business supply
7. income from operations was a 55% increase from same period in previous year
8. net income has increased 52% from previous period

Fundamental Notables:
1. we have gained market share
2. we have reached a record high in the number of tickets we have sold
3. 4.5 million customers in our active database, we have an intensive customer program
4. ctrip is one of the only receive notable awards from the government
5. the main holiday week has been replaced with a weekend notice. the change might cause a
problem from prior years numbers. but we are optimistic that as income rises people will
still vacation.
6.we are in a good position to grow our market shares
7.we can cope with challenging market conditions
8.travel market has shown a slower growth than 2007 but we believe that long term
fundamentals are in tact
9. appreciation of RMB is going to allow for outflow flights
10.ctrip can be the leading travel company in the world
11. 1rst quarter is normally slowest one in the year. Net revenue grew a lot
12. hotel bookings down quarter over quarter
13. record RMB reached in some categories such as airfare
14. growth margin remained relatively consistent (Slight increase)
15. product development remained relatively consistent
16. sales and marketing expenses increase in the first quarter due to personal increases
17. 2nd quarter has estimated revenue growth at 30%

Q & A-
1. The earth quake is discouraging people from traveling to the earth quake region. That
is the reason why revenue growth is low
2. the overall effect of the earth quake on the market get be significant
3. impossible to evaluate the Olympics's impact on the market. long term i believe ctrip
will benefit from this.Some people in china won't travel as much. Business travel will
slow down during the game. Right now its very hard to price the short term impact of the
Olympics.
4.full years guidance is the same
5. package tours are now 3 days tours.
6. routes that have majority of the decrease are related to special events (disasters)
7. March slowdown is the post snow storm effect
8.we hope to hold consistent margins
9.share based compensation increased dramatically due to increase in stock price. If the
price of the stock increases so does our sharebased compensation
10. looking for tax prefrentional treatment
11. tawain travel control will become more lax the market should expand going further

Kabirm's Thoughts-
1. not very impressed with the company and conference call specifically
2. i think it has potential but valuation for the company is too high
3. this guy is going to continue to get knocked down since the price increase in the stock
is the primary reason that shareholders compensation is so high
4. also a very conservative company which means that any geopolitical event will induce a
conservative guidance

Ratings: 2.3-Hold

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