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Cramer is wrong about Garmin
posted by mdand1 on 1 months ago
808 views

http://gizmodo.com/350894/garmin-goes-beyond-portable-navi-with-nvifone

That may well be great trading advice but you don't go "One Up on Wall Street" (title of
Peter Lynch's book) by waiting for your cues from Wall Street. For me its just not
productive to try to time the market, consider seasonal or other technical bias or
whatever. i don't understand it and I think most of it is noise in the long run. I
prefer to focus on each company's own merits.

I think it's telling that despite nearly 400 views of this thread by presumably fairly
sophisticated people, nobody's really even tried to argue that Garmin isn't a great
company with great products and likely to continue to make huge amounts of money. The
stock tades at a 21 trailing P/E which doesn't include an (undoubtably) huge Q4. Buy it
at $85 2/21 if you want.

I Remember reading about Garmin back in May 2006 when someone mentioned it and put a call
on it at $80 to $100's to expire in Dec But not sure what year...Well..Even This stock
gave me great gains.

Hope they keep busy and make more revenues so maybe the stock will see $100.00 again

I don't think he's wrong. But, don't think he's on the right page about not supporting it.
GPS technology could be coming a thing of the past. And, move into your current cell
phone. Or, your next cell phone. With a recent software update to Apple's iPhone. It can
pin-point you on Google maps. Provide location, and directions from there to anywhere. The
kicker is Apple's iPhone has no GPS technology built in to their phones. It uses cell
tower triangulation (newer form/company) to pin point you on a map. Its only a matter of
time, other phone will follow. I see GPS and companies who only support GPS going away.

I would be careful with GRMN since we are approaching a seasonally weak time period for
tech overall let alone
GRMN which has an uphill battle against Wall Street skepticism whether it can make the
jump from a stand alone device to a more convenient multi-use platform. I am waiting for
the street reaction to the 4th quarter. Does it go up on a good quarter or get sold?

IT'S NOT TOO LATE CRAMER TO JUMP ON THE GRMN BANDWAGON, AS YOU ADVOCATE ON YOUR SHOW!

Deutsche Bank’s Jonathan Goldberg this morning speculated whether the Nuvfone is based
on Google’s Android platform, given its various hooks back to Google’s sites. He also
conjectures that the devices uses a Quacomm (QCOM) 3.5G chip, with a WiFi chip likely from
Atheros (ATHR) or Marvell (MRVL). He notes that the device “seems to borrow much of its
look and feel from the Apple iPhone,” but that it does not appear to be a threat to
Apple.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Aaron Husock says that Garmin indicated it is not seeing
signs of economic weakness impacting its U.S. business, and that they consider Street
concerns about the European personal navigation device market reaching saturation to be
“overblown.”

Right on Mark. I'm also encouraged by the fact that no insiders have sold since December
17, whereas for the past 2 or so years there's been 2-4 insider sales a month (approx).
My overall cost basis is $85 so I'm down big but until the business outlook changes in a
fundamental way, as opposed to speculation about margin compression or general "economic
weakness" or whatever, I'm gonna trust the numbers and bite the bullet... and dodge my
wife's questions about how it's doing...:(

Last edited on: 01-31-2008 12:54 pm

everybody in here was a bit skepticle when I said a month or so ago I was buying ccrt at
$9-12 a share. I had to hang on a bit as I watched it dip to less than $8 a share.
However, I am feeling pretty good now with the stock up $15 a share today. My point is,
Sometimes it takes conviction and a strong stomach to make money.

I agree, buying low and waiting is an affective strategy for GRMN and one who can't time
the market like traders can. I watched the buying action on grmn during the meltdown a
couple of weeks ago. there were approximately 2500 sellers and 500 buyers, yet the price
held up well which leads me to believe that a big buyer stepped in to buy up the stock as
people through it away. This coincided with CES which had just oocured about a week or two
before. Considering how hard the stock has been hit, your risk is limited to the down side
with great potential if you can hold on a year until everyone gets his rebate check :)

investors (not traders) take note:

"In a research note Thursday from Minneapolis-based Dougherty & Co., analyst Jeff Evanson
raised expectations for Garmin by $20 million for fiscal year 2008 and raised estimates
for fiscal year 2009 by $90 million.

"While we have long believed that Garmin would introduce a handset in 2008, the nuvifone
that Garmin showed off last night is an even better concept than we originally
envisioned," Evanson wrote.

He added that other devices have some of the features, but not all that the nuvifone
offers: touch-screen functionality; preloaded maps; high-speed Internet browsing via
cellular and Wi-Fi; built in camera with geo-tagging features; and Google local search."

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