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SWIR Short Squeeze Forthcoming
posted by tellijent on 1 months ago
260 views

Check out this blog. It’s got some interesting strategies and thoughts about
investing.

http://theinstreet.blogspot.com/2008/04/learn-how-to-invest-money-beating-back.html

Sierra Wireless Raised To Top Pick From Buy By Salman >SWIR

Last update: 1/3/2008 7:23:19 AM(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

January 03, 2008 07:23 ET (12:23 GMT)

We all speculate as to why SWIR's share price has dropped, but short sellers are largely
to blame. SWIR has consistently beat and raised guidance while the price continues to
drop. When the subprime mess hit the newslines in July, people started fleeing their
investments. Those stocks that provided great gains until that point were hit unusually
hard. Why?
Some people wanted to lock in profits and they knew what effect the overall market would
have on SWIR. Others had margin calls that they had to satisfy because of their subprime
exposure; therefore, they had to sell their profitable investments to satisfy margin
calls. Short sellers took advantage. They piled on those stocks that have had extensive
gains in 2007. However, they have piled on too high with SWIR. SWIR has suffered losses
akin to the financial stocks, all the while beating estimates and guiding higher. Take a
look at what has transpired from a short selling perspective:

Settlement Date - Short Interest
Dec. 14, 2007 - 5,624,346
Nov. 30, 2007 - 5,462,257
Nov. 15, 2007 - 3,733,545
Oct. 31, 2007 - 3,271,987
Oct. 15, 2007 - 3,061,222
Sep. 28, 2007 - 2,143,367
Sep. 14, 2007 - 2,210,754
Aug. 15, 2007 - 1,380,335


In 4 months short interest has increased by over 307% or over 4 million shares. During
this time, however, SWIR beat Q3 estimates (reported $0.33 vs. expected $0.27) and raised
Q4 estimates (guided $0.35 vs. expected $0.28). They also raised over $80 million net in a
bought deal whereby they sold 3.8 million shares for $22.40/shr. Their 2007 EPS is
estimated at $1.13 and their 2008 estimated EPS is $1.52. This gives us a growth rate of
34.5% for a stock with a forward PE of less than 10, $184.5 million in cash, no debt, and
31.5 million shares outstanding. I would hate to be short at this level. The expected
earnings do not take into consideration potential acquisitions that are sure to take place
in 2008. The short sellers have had their day, but they would be wise to cover now or else
get squeezed to death. We should rename this stock "PYTHON".

Take care,

Brandon

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