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Why you should own GSF before the merger
posted by cputech on 10 months ago
2039 views

Yes ~Thanks for sharing ! and, alot depends on after merger "Market" price which I to
estimated at 6 month target of close to $200 ~ But I am not certain of that either. I'm
okay with $142 to begin....

Folks, thank you for the time you have spent researching this issue and for sharing it.
Much appreciated.

A: don't think anyone is really ignoring you so much as it would be a guess as to what the
adjusted price would be after merger. I do believe cputech provided a thoughtful reposne
somewhere else as to what his after-merge price would be. Earlier in Q&A I threw out a
poor guess trying to entice others to substantiate their judgement call . . . but to no
avail.

So if I got in on RIG at $119, would I not be better off selling just before close on
Monday (or at the day's high) and then turning around on Tuesday morning and purchasing
new RIG in order to avoid any loss?

It's all about the growth. Both of these companies have been doing very well this year.
GSF has a 5 year forward earnings growth estimate of 20%/year and RIG has a 5 year forward
earnings growth estimate of 28.31%. Both have very high profit and operating margins,
which is amazing considering the cost of buying and maintaining their drilling rigs.

Imagine where this stock will be if oil actually goes to $150 like some people have
prognosticated.

cputech: whereas, I like the source you presented, why is it I like those numbers? In
fact, the longer I look at em (going forward), the more I really, really like em. Reading
about Brazil's latest discovery field makes it that much more of interest as well. . . for
RIG should get a reasonable, fair share of fullfilling their needs. . . .albeit at least
at current oil prices.

Petroleum World
http://www.petroleumworld.com/Ed07112101.htm

Business Week - Brazil, New Oil Superpower
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2007/db20071115_045316.htm?chan=top
news_top news index_businessweek exclusives

I am estimating $135 short-term and $175 to $200 6 to 12 months out. Zacks.com had a
piece out yesterday suggesting 2008 earnings of 13.28/share. RIG currently gets a
multiple of 10.71 (as of the close yesterday), so 13.28 * 10.71 = $142.23.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={B1D465A8-8626-44A4-A384-5C22A197D0D
1}&siteid=nbs&symb=

Has anyone seen any estimates on the "new" price/share after the merger?

GSF is another animal.....................

Page 104 of DEFM 14A provides two possible outcomes with no definitive determination at
this time for tax purposes . . . First possible outcome is if the merge is a
'reorganization'; calculating a capital gain (but no loss) and recomputing stocks' basis.
The second possible tax outcome is if the monies paid to GSF holders is construed as
dividends paid.

The first outcome ( 'reorganization') would be treated on the tax return as referenced by
cputech above (which has one clerical error that will deviate from the accurate
computation for tax purposes) and the addendum describing how the tax would be condsidered
as a dividend payout (as referenced on bottom portion of page 104 and continuing on page
105).

Quite certain that whatever the appropriate tax determination for GSF holders will be,
pertinent information will be provided as the November 27th merge date approaches.

Thanks Robert. My conclusion is that I'll let my accountant figure it out. I expect the
taxable gain/loss in my 20 shares of GSF will not be large enough to worry about too much.

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