Darn, for someone that claims not to have a position in this stock, you seem awlful quick
to judge the other side of the trade. Yes I am long and proud of it and i'm buying more
today and if it goes lower i'll buy some more, You seem like a person that jumps on the
bandwagon when the markets down and try's to make out like you would hae been short all
along. Keep riding that buggy till the wheels fall off .Where in for the long
haul!!!!!!!!!!

Last edited on: 11-10-2007 11:41 am

On the topic of Cramer, yes he does know the market and yes he has made money in the
market. But that doesn't mean that it equates into his advice being good for the average
investor (his primary audience). I will explain in detail later as time constraints do
not allow for the proper explanation at the present time.

growth rates and you still will not get a present value price target anywhere near what
they are trading at right now. These valuations are based on 25% growth into perpetuity
for many of these names and some even higher. There is no innovation that is going to
occur that would justify such prices (like tech stocks). A boat moves from point A to
point B, that is it, and it has been this way for generations. Take a look at many of the
oil tanker stocks and how they traded in previous years - much like DB is trading now -
and now look at where there price is today. Enough said. The US was to oil tanker stocks
as China is to DB stocks. These stocks should not be bought at these levels and the only
thing pushing them higher is day traders and speculators trading them back and forth, and
in the end the retail investor who comes on this site and others looking for good stock
advice is left holding the bag.

OK, I would like to address a couple of the comments that have been posted recently.
First, no I do not have a short position in any of the names, I just call it like I see
it. However, judging by how adamant some of you people are on this sector it is evident
that you do in fact have long positions in the stock and are getting burned. My guess is
you bought the stuff hoping to turn a quick profit and the market turned and now you keep
hoping for a bounce so that you can dump your position, meanwhile you sit on these boards
and tell everyone what a great bargain the industry is right now. This is the typical of
speculators.

There is no doubt that China will demand abundant amounts of commodities over the coming
years. But the barriers of entry are so low in the dry bulk business that in two or three
years supply and demand for these ships will be in equilibrium. Therefore, these names
should not trade at such high valuations - do an NPV analysis using even the most liberal

I know my flip-flop buddy changes his mind a lot, and people lose a lot of money, myself
included. But that said, I just heard him say the other day he still likes the shippers
and I have to agree with him. Everything is down, including shippers, but if you are
patient you will be rewarded, we need ships, to ship all our commodities to other
countries. I strongy disagree with hedgehero, he sounds like he has a short position and
is trying to panic everyone. Sure we may go a little lower, but like I said buy more on
dips if you can and you will be happy down the road.

How many of you have made the money that the cray old guy on TV has made? Please let me
know because I want to be sure not to miss anything you got to say.

"cramer makes people lose money" such a lack of personal responsability. If you take on
high beta stocks, and the market turns south, dont expect them to buck the trend.

i disagree with hedgehero that there will be a glut in 08, but they have broken down
technically.

Last edited on: 11-09-2007 02:15 am

FRO?

What about PRGN? I bought it a week or so ago for $24.50 and it is now $20.00.

Morse...Depends on your risk tolerance and the amount of capital you have to back up the
short. If you can weather the volatility in the short-term, then it is probably the best
sector on the street to short. But in the short-term you will see volatility and a short
position may move against you. If you have the intestinal fortitude to sustain between
20-30% losses then I would say definately go for it. Because it is not a matter of if
these names will decline in the long-term, the question is when will they decline. This
industry is as old as Columbus, but it trades like a tech stock. All you need is a boat,
so there are low barriers to entry. These names WILL decline over the long-term no doubt
about it. But over the short-term retail investors may bid these names up so you have to
be willing to short all the way up, but the smart money is either out or getting out now.
If you are long the stock (especially EXM) I would sell on any strength.