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Storm Stocks
posted by billlord on 1 months ago
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I mention snow, because that's what I've been shoveling for the past few days. But what I
was trying to get at was an alternative line of thought dealing with events like this.
Trying to start a thread of alternative thoughts. Like one of the business here in my own
town is Lockheed Martin and they are a huge defense contractor, but they do other things.
Like produce the software and equipment that keeps the postal service running. Another is
Cargill and they have had a terrible run with their road salt sales due to the late
winter. Some other companies here are running 3 shifts 7 days a week, while others are
laying off and going to shortened weeks.

I think my point has been missed or forgotten. This year we had very few tropical storms
and the insurance companies suddenly had great numbers and surprises. The street had
storms baked into their estimates that didn't happen and yes there were surprises. They
missed. The department stores didn't sell winter clothing or snow removal supplies their
stocks suffered until the late cold weather arrived. To me this is were the big
opportunity is. When the market managers and the analysis are wrong. Often companies sand
bag the estimates look at Nutri Systems today. I think the street missed on that big gain
as well. These guys miss and they miss alot. I am just searching for what was missed
when bad weather hits.

Back testing isn't necessary. Generally speaking, all such stocks will get a bounce if
earnings are higher than expected. The problem is every analyst and money manager knows a
heck of a lot more about this reality than you or I, and its already priced into the
stocks. What may be a better option is to buy those stocks which benefit from great
weather. Those stocks would likely be temporarily pressed downward, and would provide some
good buying opportunities for the long-term.

Take a look at ICO. (International Coal) Great value play, beaten down but coal prices are
starting to rise, and long-term fundamentals look great. Invest alongside a legend like
Wilbur Ross....finally, UBS just put a $9/target after earnings.....double here from
here!!!

I know about the Low and HD, but I'm trying to think deeper, like road salt usage, home
heating oil. Large snow blower makers for highways and airports, the maintenance of dump
trucks, linemen supplies and etc. For the floods and hurricane seasons more like the
manufactures of temporary housing and the software used in refining the data used in
forecasting these events. Finding the spin offs that suddenly show up on earnings day as a
surprise.
I was just looking for a place to build on what someone else has started, not inventing
the wheel again. I guess what I'm looking for is a scan and a back testing that shows what
stocks actually got a boost or decline when and event occurs.

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