Keep in mind that while homebuilders are trading well-below their 52 week and all-time
highs, would you have bought Cisco down 35% in 2001? Not unless you like losing another
50%! Be patient...

Those are the obvious trades, I'm trying to think deeper, like road salt usage, home
heating oil. Large snow blower makers for highways and airports, the maintenance of dump
trucks, linemen supplies and etc. For the floods and hurricane seasons more like the
manufactures of temporary housing and the software used in refining the data used in
forecasting these events. Finding the spin offs that suddenly show up on earnings day as
a surprise.
I was just looking for a place to build on what someone else has started, not inventing
the wheel again. I guess what I'm looking for is a scan and a back testing that shows
what stocks actually got a boost or decline when and event occurs.
I thought I might get better responses if I made thin as it's own subject

Last edited on: 02-14-2007 12:31 pm

Check out BLG, LOW and HD are too huge, and average joe knows em. Did you see the markets
when helicopter Ben said inflation is easing ahah bonds rallied, stock rallied, market is
telling us he is going to cut, exactly on the agenda and why your going to see record
"nominal" gains in the markets. Id be buying all interest rate sensitive stocks.

I'm, fairly new here. But I notice that there is a section called active trader. I was
wondering if there is a collection of active trades for storm stocks? I'm not really into
gaining off of someone else's pain, but it seems that there must be a group of stocks that
go up and another that goes down when a major storm hits.

Severely lagging the market. KB Home (KBH), D.R. Horton (DHI) and Centex (CTX) are the
third, sixth and the eleventh-worst performing stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 this
year. The year's not quite half over, and these three leading home builders' shares are
down 35%, 32% and 29%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has eked out a 0.2% gain.

%u2022Suffering massive drops from highs. The home building stocks' falls from their peaks
have reached painful proportions. KB Home, for instance, is 44% off its July 20, 2005,
peak.

%u2022Getting hit with weak forecasts from the companies. Monday, Lennar (LEN) became the
latest home builder to cut its estimate for the future, saying it expects weakness in the
second half will make its earnings as much as 11% lower than it previously thought. That
comes just weeks after Pulte (PHM), Toll Bros. (TOL), KB Home and Hovnanian (HOV) cut
their outlooks. Analysts can't cut their estimates fast enough. Pulte's earnings, for
instance, are forecast to fall 17% this year and 14% in 2007, says Reuters Estimates.

Generally, one buys homebuilders when there is blood in the water, PEs are high (due to
low earnings) and they sell well below their highs over the past 5 years. Surprisingly,
homebuilders' prices are rather rich right now.

The only logical reason to buy these is going forward the Feds will cut interest rates to
simulate and reflate the economy, otherwise, they are doing horrible. But the Fed assumes
people will keep going into debt with fixed incomes their cash flow will become tight.
Shorting Subprimers is a given, i hate givens!

Last edited on: 02-13-2007 11:10 am