June Off To A Poor ...
posted by Dave Cox on 1 months ago
"Why diversify? Because I could be wrong..." Jim C
I don't 'really' mean to call into question the authors of the articles integrity.
However, the question begging to be asked is: how many trading days are left before the
fed meeting and how will the futures contract trading evolve between now and then. If
these traders have placed their bets, will they 'adjust ' them according to 'whatever' in
the near term? If unemployment... If inflation... If more bodies float to the
surface... I'm pushing back because we have all 'felt' mislead (our own fault or not) and
faked out in the 'very' recent past. Maybe all the brokerages and hedgies screaming
through their media pundits tainted my thinking process. Is there a disconnected
correlative between pundacity and what actually takes place. "Market is stabilizing..."
(?) Because of news-lite? Sentiment, which was 110% on the cut side at 5 pm Friday has
begun to swing. Right now... the talk is recession. Rate cut stops recession?
posted by gmartin1 on 1 months ago
What's your holding period/timeframe? 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, several years? Just
wondering what kind of a trader/investor you are.
Odds of a rate cut are good, 0.50% to 0.75% by first quarter next year.
here's a marketwatch article on August 10:
href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/market-prices-near-100-odds/story.aspx?guid=%7
B68AE6D55-4DBD-4754-BB82-9D9FCD329501%7D"> Marketwatch article on odds of Rate cut
Financials benefit from rates going down. Look at HCBK (Hudson City Bank). Little or no
subprime exposure. Stock has held up well during market correction and liquidity crunch.
href="http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/21/markets/spotlight_hcbk/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote"
>CNN calls them the anti-Countrywide.
posted by gmartin1 on 1 months ago
This is a follow-up to the Stockpickr thread:
href="http://www.stockpickr.com/allforum/1/2699/0/40/10/0/#selViewThread">Strategy
Session: Sector Rotation Plan as Fed cuts Rates
So how have you been rotating/positioning your portfolio?
For me:
Quick overview:
-------------------
1. Sell Oil and Oil Services
2. Sell Coal
3. Sell Minerals
4. Sell Selected Financial companies (during drop)
5. Reduce Emerging Market Wireless Telecom
6. Hold Computer Gaming Retailer
7. Hold Infrastructure
8. Overweight high tech growth
9. Add Selected Financials: Regional bank with little or no subprime risk.
10. Hold and Add to Cash rich Companies with Great Investors/Management, like Berkshire
Hathaway.
11. Hold Aerospace
12. Hold Defense play.
13. Hold Emerging market beverage/consumer staples.
Full details:
href="http://techfarm.blogspot.com/2007/08/strategic-portfolio-re-allocation-as.html">http
://techfarm.blogspot.com/2007/08/strategic-portfolio-re-allocation-as.html
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