Ugly as sin though...

I had the pleasure of working with Bill Gross for five years. Not only is he very sharp
in the bond business, he's a really nice guy.

predictions no, guesses yes, Bernanke sounds a little hawkish to me. I dont think rates
change in 07. Consumer spending, I've been worried about the consumer for a while. I
think I underestimate the ignorance of the consumer, they keep spending even though logic
says they shouldn't be. I'm a spectator even though two of my larger holdings are based on
the consumer CCRT and COF. Oil- Was that price runup legitament? or was it runaway spec?
Is it reverting back to the trend? Or is it foreshadowing a economic slowdown. I like
Canadian Trusts right now as well as Oil co's, but I averaged in a little too fast. I
think gold goes higher, thats probably not a surprise.

Also, any thoughts out there where oil prices and gold might go?

On another note, my biggest worry: that consumer spending might quickly pick up at a
surprisingly fast rate in early '07, and the Fed making the mistake of panicking and
raising rates.

That being said, since August of last year, I've been saying the Fed wouldn't cut until
August of '07. Although that seemed like a solid forecast for a minute there, I've heard
that some people predicting that the Fed won't cut until '08, and others saying they'll
hike in '07 (and yet even others saying they'll still cut by May or June).

Any predictions on that (interest rates)?
How about consumer spending?

Actually, some of the fund managers they have here on Stockpickr are incredible. I'm
pretty impressed at the collection they have.

It's extremely beneficial to be able to come on here and look at what these various funds
hold, so that you can get a sense of their strategy and what not. It's tool as another
form of a "background check for mutual funds" gives Stockpickr users a terrific advantage
over people who don't know about Stockpickr yet.

Yeah, I'm a little weary of China as well after it's recent run-up, and am also worried
about what happens in the coming years (specifically having to do with their high # of
unperforming loans, as well as their excessive savings levels). I actually have an
All-Asia fund that also encompasses India.
It would be wonderful if someone came out with a combined India-China fund. I would
probably nibble at a tiny, tiny bit now, and then slowly add to it over the years. That
would be something I'd probably hold in an IRA for life... just because of the fact that
India and China have so much potential growth ahead of them.
In the end, I agree, though, that inernational markets right now seem sort of unstable,
and could quickly, quickly retreat. But I'd rather be diversified than not.

That may be over my head, I'll try to digest that one!
I own VSL Indian ADR (up 20%) but I dont like China although I owned Matthews China Fund
for a few years. I'm looking for a hard landing after the Olympics.

In regards to Mr. Gross, check your message box.

Agree. Mr. Friedman had an interesting point on China and India. I will post the quote
below:

India -- how do you assess its prospects?

Friedman: Fifty years ago, as a consultant to the Indian minister of finance, I wrote a
memo in which I said that India had a great potential but was stagnating because of
collectivist economic policies. India has finally started to disband those collectivist
policies and is reaping its reward. If they can continue dismantling the collectivist
policies, their prospects are very bright.

Any thoughts on a China versus India comparison?

Friedman: Yes. Note the contrast. China has maintained political and human collectivism
while gradually freeing the economic market. This has so far been very successful but is
heading for a clash, since economic freedom and political collectivism are not compatible.
India maintained political democracy while running a collectivist economy. It is now
unwinding the latter, which will strengthen freedom of all kinds, so in that respect it is
in a better position than China.

Whos the one that is better is Bill Gross? I totally agree with you that high taxes would
be a killer. For what its worth, if we sized up other economies they would look downright
scary!