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ok, lets talk some commodities. It is tough to keep this thread going on my own, because
I feel I am not getting much back from the site recently. First up...PCU. I really hate
to fight the tape. In my experience trading these stocks for 6 years, never fight the
tape. But this run in PCU defies logic, at least for me. True, copper is running up.
But the copper run-up can almost be directly attributable to the copper stockpile decline
which is largely due to the ongoing labor disputes that PCU is having. FCX is solid here,
but even FCX hasn't run up as much as PCU has. It will be interesting to see what happens
tomorrow when the strikes in Peru start. Where are they going to get their copper from
and how will they process their ore? I wish I could find more information on their
contingency plans.

I also believe credit conditions will not return to boom levels which actually
turbocharged many markets. Too many unknowns for me. Commodities are the simple relative
to the Credit Markets.

Long term as long as the global economy is constant and central banks continue to debase.
I'm red flagging China. Their inflation scares me. They could be experiencing a wonderful
boom but the bust will not be managable. Actually bullish for the dollar. But if they are
smarter than we everyone is forecasting I would be nervous.

Last edited on: 09-24-2007 06:06 pm

PCU vs. FCX. What is up with the tape on these today? Copper has been going up on supply
and production concerns, and PCU is the root of that problem. Their CEO comes out today
and states that the earlier estimates will not be meet in production, and they can not say
by how much because they have so many labor issues right now. So why is FCX down, and PCU
up? Strange. Unless a labor deal is struck overnight, I would expect a drop in PCU
tomorrow. Thoughts?

I agree with you young, but I still think this is a spot where investors and traders need
to pick and choose. Some risk factor has to be applied to the commodities, and there are
risks both ways with inflation and/or declining growth. If there is a US recession it has
to be noted that there is a very good chance that world growth will take a hit as well.
That would affect the growth-oriented commodity companies, regardless of the value of the
dollar at that time.

If these other Central Banks cut unnessarily I would still be bullish on commodites.
Global Inflation. Great at the Moment but will hurt in the long run.

Its like the Bursting of the tech bubble needed to be cushioned. If you actually look back
on history the correction was necessary. Misallocation was all in the Tech sector. Trying
to save the housing situation because it will threaten the economy is hilarious. Basically
saying we need to put a floor on these housing prices. Lol.

If you understand the Fed cannot control the flow of money you will not wait.

I'm interested with the other central banks and their actions. I still believe this will
not help housing. Wishful Thinking. I believe a slowdown was already baked into these
commodity prices. But if we had a global recession I could understand. But that's not the
case. If the world continues to boom you will continue to see the real value of the
dollar.

Last edited on: 09-21-2007 04:24 pm

Hazy, I think you have to have some exposure right now. If you are concerned about a
pullback, then I would suggest getting some call options going out to 09. As for the
cycle, we are still in the middle innings. some commodities are through, such as
aluminum. Supply has overtaken demand in that area. Copper is about three years off from
that point. Oil seems to be comfortable right here, but it still has room to run as I
don't see supply being too secure. The wildcard in this is a recession. Demand for all
of these things will go down if that occurs, and even if it is a slight demand dip, the
market will force these companies down on the expectation of declining demand. And then
there are interest rates. I can't see more cuts coming, because inflation will get out of
hand. But for me seeing it one way, there are two people who see it the other way. If we
do get more cuts, you want to be in gold and oil.