.

I think that next week when no more Q reports here all these energy stocks will fall some
till Summer.

NBR is a land driller. If NG goes up NBR will also. Thats just about it. NBR does a lot of
business with BJS. Nothing at all wrong with NBR it is just if you look at Transocean's,
RIG,- rig report- the numbers and on into into the future make you stop and look at that
awhile. CVX has 5-6 contracts in deep water for up to $500,000 a day. A day! Most of these
contracts are joint ventures, DVN some, to spread the cost and risk around. Deep ocean and
their suppliers and repair now seem a good play
For another land supplier that almost nobody talks about look at LUFK. Run their charts.
Quietely going about their business.

CHK is a very good company. They are growing the company and doing it using a normal
method. Just hard to trade with. I expect, since I've learned this the hard way also, is
either a hurrican will tear up the Gulf or one day they will sell the company. Either way
may go to the high side of 40.

Edmund18 - that's funny. I went through that routine with CHK too. Great assets in the
ground. But you never know when the next tidal wave of new shares or debt is going to hit.

I guess I would call the Gates and Buffett fortunes business building or purchases, not
investments in the sense of a retail investment. Likewise Lampert. Gates didn't chose to
invest in Microsoft. He chose to build the business. These are two different things.
Buffett makes the conscious choices, but on a scale not readily attainable by mere
mortals. Lampert has big brass ones and lots of cash under control -- not a position the
retail investor is in. I doubt that anyone on this board can do what Gates or Buffett or
Lampert did or they'd be (insert your favorite billionaire fantasy here).

So this leaves trading, timing, and buy-and-hold. (By timing I mean such techniques as
"buy low, sell high" psuedo-value plays, "buy high, sell higher" momentum plays and other
such techniques OR trading on Cramer's investment cycles approach -- in any event, on 6 to
18 month windows, not days and weeks).

Does anyone have any quant data to help? (Note, I'm really trying to get Altucher to chime
in here cause he's obviously a quant guy).

You do all your homework and find a good stock. Take CHK. Insiders buying like mad, great
North American NG company. Low P/E. Everything looks great. You buy @ 30 it goes to 34,
hey man doing good. They issue a bunch of stock to pay for something, goes back to 30.
Time and again. After the second time, for me, went to DVN for my NG.
I think thats one reason Buffet does good. He buys the whole company. Fewer surprises.

Last edited on: 05-03-2007 10:18 am

I wouldn't go that far. Great company historically, but it seems the geometric growth is
over for now.

Ahha, tho, Cavemanus, Bill Gates knows that one company from inside out; he is the stalk
the corn is growing on. If he (his company) starts feeling ill, he'll probably sell a
bunch too. LOL

Isn't he something, though, and as far as I know nary a scandal in sight. I've always
been on his side through controversy and lawsuits. Heck, maybe I ought to own a share or
two of that company.

Last edited on: 05-03-2007 06:59 am

Betty Boop, make sure you look for those books in the library. That is part of money
management too.

BTW, some famous traders who use technical analysis?
Lazlo Birinyi, John Bollinger, Tom DeMark and, to some degree, William J. O'Neil (although
it is only part of his momentum style).

Personally, I read Helene Meisler every business day.

None of these people are as well known (or as rich) as say Warren Buffett, but they have
all helped me learn a great deal about markets and investing.
And I am a value investor.

Not that I am a strict buy and holder, but I do note that the richest man in the world,
Bill Gates, became rich holding one stock for years.

Last edited on: 05-03-2007 12:37 am