I have noticed, that when providing advice on stocks, traders often end their analysis
with this caveat: "I could be wrong." IMO, this is the disclaimer effectively absolving
them from any flak should the analysis go awry. Since we know there are "two sides to
every trade," traders shouldn't have to protect themselves with disclaimers since the
inherent risk is already known. (But then I think about a poster like Skee, who likes to
blame everybody when things go wrong, and I can understand why such disclaimers exist.)
I like the SLX, the steel ETF that tracks the AMEX steel index. I like the fact that 8 out
of its top 10 holdings are foreign-based companies, including two in Brazil (site of the
2016 Olympics). I like the fact that - although American steel companies could potentially
suffer from the climate bill - foreign companies like the ones in the SLX could benefit by
providing cheaper imports. Its top holdings are VALE, MT, RTP, MTL, TX, PKX, SID, GGB, X,
NUE. Div. in Dec., too.

Last edited on: 11-07-2009 07:22 am

Jake Gint's post today on www.ibankcoin.com.
(I have been discussing TBT with Mr. Partridge, who sold his position yesterday. And,
after having bought myself at 43 and 46, am also out.
But now I have been debating getting back in.)

Yes, yes, you’re making Scrooge McDuck sized gains these last few days and you’re
beginning to get all slack-jawed and drooly thinking about swan diving into your treasure
pile of gold doubloons and ruby-encrusted silver chalices.

If you’ve been following along gamely, I’ll allow you that brief indulgence. Swim
away, just be aware that those Kruggerands have sharp, ridged edges and they can nick your
hammies in mid-backstroke.

Let’s not forget, however, that this blog is first about preservation of capital. We
invest in hard money assets and companies because we believe the Fed is bent– like an
emaciated goatherd preparing to skin and stew his last kid – on destroying the
currency.

One way that’s skinning is going to show up is in the eventual destruction of (TLT:
93.24 0.00%) . For that reason, (TBT: 47.82 +0.21%) is a Jacksonian Portfolio pick, and
the only Double ETF I allow within those hallowed halls (though I love (AGQ: 61.45 -0.11%)
like Mrs. Jake loves an after-Christmas sale).

To my delight, it looks like (TBT: 47.82 +0.21%) is “ready to rumble” right along with
the rest of his Jacksonian colleagues:

[NOTE: My StockCharts machine is not working properly for me, but the narrative is TBT has
gone:
1) Back through the 38.2% fibonacci
2) Through the major congestion finger by price & volume charting; and most important
3) Through and retested the recent downtrend line]

I will get that chart up as soon as I can wrangle it. Salud.

Enough republican vistories last night to spark a huge sentiment rally in the major
averages.
EMS is on today's list of the newest additions to Zack's Top 100.
But at 2:15, the fed's Uncle Ben could ruin it all, with even just a hint of hawkishness
in his outlook.
So i'm still chicken.

Last edited on: 11-04-2009 05:17 am

EMS rallied despite a flat bottom line AND a disappointing top line. Why? "Must" be "they"
beilieve that EMS's managers really can bring on better-than-expected growth in the coming
quarters.
If you bought at the opening price of just over $44, congrats! I didn't buy until 48.52.
I may or may not regret this, but i sold the whole position at 51.12, because the fed may
or may not throw a wrench in everything Wednesday afternoon. Will re-evaluate after
Fryday's jobs report. Gotta respect the tide.

Last edited on: 11-03-2009 10:10 pm

Since the uptrend which began in June has stalled, the ADX has gone below that critical 20
level. So a good EPS report Tuesday should take its ADX back over 20, which (if it
happens) would "indicate" a nice rally. So, iff EMS is up Tuesday, i'm jumping in.

Thanks for the link Valerie. Dave Fry is right about Friday being a huge tell. For reasons
explained below, i look for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday to be up days. But the jury's
still out about Friday, which should decide whether or not we stay in this recent sawtooth
pattern.

Albeit that 3rd wave down only lasted through the middle part of the day, it cleared the
way for a "sustained" rally, which started late Monday, and should last at least until
Friday.
Early Wednesday, the major averages should react positively to elections news if even just
a few republicans win. And late Wednesday, the fed is very likely to announce continued
market friendliness.
But Friday is iffy. Any *positive* surprise from Friday's jobs report may already be
priced in as a result of Monday's good ISM report. So it may take an *extremely positive*
jobs surprise to take the rally to the next level. But if we get a disappointing jobs
report Friday, it could end the rally violently.

http://www.etfdigest.com/davesDaily.php

I like looking at these charts.
Do you look at stuff like this at all?

ENOC has really pulled back from its most recent high of 35-ish. They report after market
hours on Nov. 5.

Tim Knight on Slope predicts a pop to SP 500 1050 (didn't hold that today); move down to
1005 and "burst" to 1076.

I could use a burst myself or maybe more sleep.

1st wave down was Wed.; 2nd wave down was Fri. Given the history of corrections coming in
waves of 3, a 3rd wave down looms. If it's just a brief pause, or a quick correction, a
lasting advance could happen after that 3rd wave down. But my hunch is that it won't be
brief. Instead, a sawtooth pattern for the rest of '09 seems more likely: a net sideways,
choppy consolidation.
November starts a new fiscal year for most funds mgrs, who lost money in fiscal '08, and
get canned if they lose money 2 years in a row. That's why they pushed stock prices up
over the last 8 months. But now that a great deal of their buying pressure is off, we
probably see less aggressively sustained buying on dips. Just quick swings up and down are
more likely---not only for stock prices, but for the dollar too. That'd be a choppy
stabilization of the dollar, but probably not a bottoming process, just a pause before its
next leg down, which might finally bring an end to the Treasury bubble.

Alchemist,
Where are you?
Haven't the theme parks closed for the season?
What is the theme of the market, in your opinion?