I think I should have just gone on looking at the numbers ... I always get in trouble when
I think ... (humor).

Thanks guys. It's up and up is good.

So...do you mean a contract for a later date bought in the day and then it posts at night
as "futures"?

I'm having the hardest time grasping this after looking at it over the last year - it was
just a number to me and suddenly I wondered what it actually represented.

you are trading contracts to deliver a basket of goods at a future date for a price that
is determined realtime at auction. These "goods" can be financial instruments (all the
stocks in the S&P500), commodities (oil, gold, etc.), even an abstract such as volatility
(the VIX). If you buy one of these futures contracts and do not close it before
settlement, you take delivery of the goods (except for the VIX - you cannot take delivery
on "volatility"). But you can take delivery on pork bellies.

The "basket of SP500 stocks" is traded worldwide, that is why you can get quotes on the
futures outside of NYSE trading hours.

When you hear "cash versus futures" - the "cash" is the realtime value of all the stocks
in the SP500. The futures contract is like an option - you agree to buy all those stocks
at an auction price for a settlement date in the future.

There are of course futures contracts on the Dow, the Nasdaq 100, etc.

So it's an indicator ... but not something anyone actually purchased.
Thanks.

Thanks Ryan.
I'm just not getting how it works - it's "something" that gets bought and then it shows up
as futures? But it's bought in the afterhours, when our market is closed and it reflects
what will happen when the market opens again.

futures are kinda like options on the index. that isnt exactly what they are, but the
concept is similar in that buying S&P futures its like buying $SPX, but not during US
trading. its done with leverage, like options.

another way to look at it is they are like crude oil futures. there are front and back
months, and thefront month is the price of crude.

I just realized, with the
"futures" down 337, that I have no idea what they are. How do "futures" go up and down?

I use a journal, extensively. It is a diary of day to day action, a history of the market
in your perspective. Every time I buy or sell a stock I note: "why". I've done this for
over 10 years. You are less likely to revisit mistakes. You see what has worked and what
has not. Keep a journal I urge everybody.

I agree with the "Journal". I started off with just using a note pad and found the
information I kept on prices and my own thoughts at the time was invaluable. Now I have
the "Journal" on my computer. It is a great tool.

other than digging into the 10Q's, im not sure there is an emperical way to get into
market share. you can wing it, and thats all i do.

it is ****NOT***** true that if you have earnings growth you have revenue growth. the way
accounting works, you can have pathetic revenue growth but if you have inventory inflation
you can mark that down as earnings (happens all the time), if you make a sale but its
through a loan, if you reduce your costs, and if you buy back shares, your EPS growth is
higher. there are many other ways to fudge this and fool the average investor...and they
do

Last edited on: 08-30-2008 12:57 am