I still like Dow 9000.

In thee end the bulls will have a tough battle against the bears. But why agrue when you
can make money both ways? Beats me! I would keep eyes on the homebuilder sector for a
real bottom, but that could be risky because the banking side is just as important.

But I can wait to be there when it bottoms.

Well we have to account for crazy deficit spending to offset the decline. So basically
I'm counting on whoever is in office to spend a buttload to revive us.

as for my question about 9k, i was basically asking, why not 7k? if thre is no bottom in
housing...

Gross, yeah i felt he was already there but didnt direct it specifically at Obama. in
order to do what is right, without going your style of economics and letting the town burn
(something i think might happen anways), that is whats needed.

infrastructure, obama (and at least half the country wants 'universal' health care), tax
cuts for poor people, medicare, social security, new energy infrastructure...all this cant
be solved by private sector spending. even taking away the war spending probably wouldnt
pay for all of that.

and not to mention if there is another big leg down in housing (im basically there with ya
on that one) then the Feds balance sheet is deeply impaired.

i cant think of one reason why spending should/will be cut.

Dow 9, is just based off olds news that everyone is completely missing, The No Bottom Real
Estate!

What you think of Bill Gross monthly letter? Rather Interesting, predicting a trillion
dollar deficit and worried about a Japan Style Deflation........

$DJI @ 9k...im curious if you're predicting this based off of a theory that we've had a
rolling wave of bubbles since 98?

i agree with the idea of not owning financials here, i basically dont think you can own
any stocks right now till new lows are made for the SPX.

i agree that it is starting to, and probably will hit harder, the real economy vs stocks.
stocks werent overbought in the past 5 years relative to other asset classes like real
estate, commodities, private equity, etc. but i do expect this to start hurting *global*
equities by the summers end. and that i believe will further hurt US equities.

While CNBC and the world believes the stock market is going from Dow 9000 to 7000 and the
U.S. in under a recession the offical bottom forms at 9000 and the Dow goes higher.


Only, and if only, the credit bubble doesn't spill into the................bond market.

Confidence is pretty bad. It's so bad we are wishing for some outrageous savings. As
soon as Bernanke cuts rates oil surges 100percent, I'd say he's a speculator!

I don't disagree! But that engine of monsterous growth is gone, dead, dried to hay, and
destroyed. We can only now move forward and struggle with a tight bank system for, say, 2
years. I don't think the economy hasn't even felt the first wave of a reverse cycle from
credit contraction. I'd say subprime is now rippling through the "real" economy not "stock
markets" economy. Hoarding of cash should continue or reduced inventories. Its
interesting.


But I always agree with your opinion, makes me think harder.