By Stockpickr Guest Columnist Glen Bradford
Here at Purdue University, this week brings three days of high-intensity trading. Instead of trading company ownership for money, the business here is trading company information for resumes.
The greatest investors, such as Peter Lynch, notoriously look in the oddest places to get their stock ideas. (Maybe while strolling in the mall, Lynch noticed something at Coach (COH), Gap (GPS) or Crocs (CROX).) At a career fair, where most see a plethora of potential careers at their fingertips, I see an informal opportunity to find out where the talent is headed and talk company dynamics with recruiters.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) came to Purdue for one reason: to hire engineers. Instead of sending HR representatives as many companies do, ADM sent its finest engineers to recruit on campus. As far as I can tell, working at this company is serious business. Its pamphlet illustrates that "Engineering Interns must be capable of climbing ladders, riding a belt lift, working in tight spaces and entering confined spaces (including tanks and vessels)." You're probably wondering why I mentioned this. As an engineer, I've had to deal with engineering interns that feel that they are entitled and actually refuse to do these kind of activities. ADM is clear about its expectations.
ADM is priced to grow at 0.7%, which likely does not consider that it's been growing by my underestimations of 36% over the last five years. ADM has a stock price trend that mirrors the inverse of its revenue trend. Granted, net incomes fell this last quarter. It's expected to grow little if at all over the next couple of years. Since I can't tell the future, the best way to predict it is to forecast from the past and expect that good management will continue to make good decisions and is hiring the best and the brightest to drive new innovation and keep the company competitive. This appears to be the case for ADM.
Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) doesn't actually build bridges. It quit that business long ago. Headquartered in the Netherlands, it built the St. Louis Gateway Arch as well as the largest floating roof tank for the oil industry and the largest steel water reservoir. It's been growing revenues and incomes at around 33% consistently for the last five years in an exponential pattern. This is likely attributable to its base of oil and gas projects, which we all know from pump experiences have been increasing in price over that time frame.
CBI has experienced my favorite: a "one-time charge." This one resulted from cost overruns in projects in the UK. These one-time charges tend to drive stock price down and have little impact on future growth. Talking to the employees and hearing stories about specific details on these project issues leads me to believe that a one-time charge is not likely to happen again anytime soon. CBI is priced as if it's going to grow at 6.3%. From what history suggests, that's a lot slower than this company is likely to grow, and I don't see it slowing down to 6% anytime soon. What we have here is a great opportunity to go long and beat the market. With a P/E less than 15, I'm in.
Bucyrus International (BUCY) provides the mining equipment that the other companies are using to extract coal, copper, iron ore and oil sands from the ground. These guys make the big machines you're likely to see on Discovery Channel's "Dirty Jobs With Mike Rowe." This company has a huge history; it's been in business since 1880.
Lately, the stock's gotten hammered due to lower analyst ratings and "bearish triangular technical analysis" or a "continuation wedge." When I look at the fundamentals, I see that it's priced to grow at 11%, and it's been growing four times as fast as that at 48% over the past five years. That's just revenue growth. Net income growth far outpaces that. A return on equity of 25% seals the deal for me after reading into it and finding little downside risk.
I can't wait for my next job fair. I could make even more than just a salary. Of course, since not all the companies that attend job fairs are public, it's not exactly the stock market floor -- but from a bird's eye view, it comes pretty close.
Disclosure: I own CBI, ADM, BUCY.
For more of Glen's ideas, go to GlenBradford.com.
Posted on Sept. 15, 2008
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