By Stockpickr Guest Columnist Glen Bradford

When I see people stampeding, I try to ask myself what they are running from and where they might be headed. The trick as far as asset allocation goes is to buy companies before the stampede gets there.

An investor in the four stocks I'm recommending today would be following what in my opinion is Warren Buffett's No. 1 rule: Never lose money. That's really the basis of this article. I formulated my own opinions about several companies and then compared them with analyst estimates to confirm my bias. So what we have here is that analysts expect the stock to go up, historical fundamental analysis expects the company to grow, and there's a high level of historical probability.

Arena Resources (ARD) has more than 100 years of experience turning "backyards" into highly lucrative assets. It's been growing religiously over the last five years at more than 100% a year. It's priced to continue growth at 14% with a P/E of 21.85.

Just to give an idea of other stocks priced in that universe: Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea (GAP) shares a P/E in the same neighborhood. Now, if you were to ask me, I'd gladly join the stampede on Great Atlantic, but Arena deserves a break. I expect that since Arena has been growing predictably at whirlwind paces over the last several years and analysts project that that growth will continue, it likely will.

Manitowoc (MTW) is getting the short end of the stick lately. Priced to grow at 1% is Mr. Market's over-exaggeration of the end of the world. Manitowoc has been growing profit margins over the past five years from 1% to 9%. It's been leveraging itself almost twofold to pull 31% return on equity on its 13% asset base. I have Manitowoc successfully growing revenues at 28% over the last five years in a highly predictable fashion, and the increasing profit margins have been exploding the net income growth. What we have is a company that's priced as if it's closing its doors forever and is a construction industry leader. I know a deal when I see one.

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) is another oil and gas company that is underpriced for its growth potential. This one's been growing linearly at 50% for the past five years, and it's priced to grow at 8.1%. Profit margins have tripled, and lately the stock's gotten sacked. Analysts have this thing growing faster than 8% and are optimistic that oil drilling will still be a lucrative business. I waited on these oil stocks for the price of the barrel of oil to show signs of stabilization, which it has. Now I'm in.

Precision Castparts (PCP) is priced to grow at 6.7% -- not very fast for a company that's been growing at 30% over the last five years in a linear fashion. Profit margins tripled as they did in National Oilwell Varco, and Precision Castparts is down about 25% over the last four months, losing most of its value in the first two and stabilizing since then. Return on equity is high at 27%, and the company recently acquired Airdrome. Earnings estimates have been above 20% since 2006, and the analysts haven't been wrong yet.

A lot of the time, market prices are dictated by who is checking on them. Granted that losses hurt twice as much as gains in matters financial, it's not a surprise to see investors whose stocks are down a little bit hit the ground running.

I'm the guy looking out for stampedes running away from something good just because somebody's uncle's brother's cousin mentioned that it was falling, engaging the flight reaction and starting the stampede. It's a lot like those traffic jams that end up without an accident.

Disclaimer: Glen owns ARD, MTW, NOV, PCP.

For more of Glen's ideas, go to GlenBradford.com.

Posted on Sept. 15, 2008