With a market that has gone down in a straight line for the past seven months, there are bound to be some short- and long-term opportunities for both investing and trading. And not just in Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE) or Google (GOOG).
Here is this week's Rocket Stocks portfolio.
CBS (CBS): We all know CBS, which trades for an enterprise value/EBITDA of 5.8 and forward P/E of 8.6. These valuations are extremely cheap by almost any valuation metrics in the market. CBS has 10 time-period-winning programs, more than all the other networks combined. This means, during a slowdown, advertisers look to get the most bang for their buck; advertising with CBS makes the most sense, given its dominant force in winning programs.
CBS also recently bought CNET.com. the No. 1 Web site in the computer and consumer electronics category, which reaches more than 17 million people each month. BNRY.vom, ZDNET and TechRepublic are among the fastest-growing destinations in the expanding business category, with a combined 18.4 million monthly users. That's almost 35 million users each month, not including CBS.com and CBSnews.com and other local CBS sites, which bring in about 100 million visitors each month.
Applying a Yahoo! (YHOO) multiple to the Web sites alone shows that a "sum of the parts" is equal to at least two-thirds the current market cap of the company. Let's also not forget that CBS radio revenue ranks No. 1 in New York City, No. 2 in L.A., No. 1 in Chicago, No. 2 in San Francisco, No. 1 in Dallas, No. 5 in Houston, No. 1 in Philadelphia and No. 1 in Boston. CBS also owns Simon & Schuster.
Another reason that it's time to consider buying CBS is that mainstream media is going to benefit from over $400 million in advertising for the current presidential campaign. And with a tight race, this number could increase.
Kellogg Brown and Root (KBR): This company has $1.6 billion dollars in cash, zero debt and a backlog north of $13 billion. Of its revenue, 89% is internationally based and 11% is domestically based. KBR's backlog is broken up into six pieces: downstream, services, technology, upstream, ventures and government and infrastructure.
The downstream unit has a backlog of just under $300 million, mostly focused on various downstream projects, such as refining. Most of this segment is based on emerging markets. Government and infrastructure has a backlog of $5 billion, with vast diversification among various defense services and nondefense branches of the U.S. government. The services business unit backlog ballooned from the first quarter of 2007 to first quarter of 2008, up a whopping 208%. Mostly driven from demand from the Canadian oil sands, this is an indirect play on the Canadian oil sands. Technology is the smallest backlog of the portfolio, coming in at around $110 million. This is mostly leveraged to intellectual property assets and is focused on capitalizing on future licensing opportunities.
The upstream side of the business accounts for the largest portion of the backlog portfolio, coming in at a $6.5 billion vs. first-quarter 2007's $4 billion. This portion is directly leveraged to the price of oil and natural gas and exploration thereof. The Ventures backlog accounts for $700 million, up 17% since the first quarter of 2007. Here KBR makes equity investments on a stand-alone basis. The stock is near its 52-week low, and KBR's total backlog has grown from $10.7 billion in first-quarter 2007 to $13.4 billion in first-quarter 2008, up 25% year over year. During the same time, recurring business income has grown 30%, which means KBR's customers love their service.
Next on the list is ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG): The company is currently near its 52-week low. ATP trades with a forward P/E of 4.23 and EV/EBITDA of 3.787 and at one times 2008 cash flows. Production growth is up 31% year over year, and even faster growth is projected in the future. ATP recent sold a 10% stake in a small oil/natural gas field for $85 million, suggesting the worth of this field only is over $80 million. In the coming weeks, ATP will be updating production and monetization levels to investors. I think that is when the stock takes off.
For more ideas, make sure to check out this week's Rocket Stocks portfolio. It may not include popular names such as a Lehman (LEH), Goldman Sachs (GS), Cisco (CSCO) or Prizer (PFE), but there are some real opportunities here.
To find the snapbacks and potential breakouts on a regular basis, check out these Stockpickr portfolios, which I use in my own research each week:
Always check the Biggest Percentage Losers, a list of stocks that lost big the day before, because they can snap back hard.
When you check this list on Stockpickr, you can see which stocks are owned by the quality hedge funds and mutual funds. Pay attention to those. The funds will be buying at the lower prices and likely supporting the stock.
Ditto for the 52-week-low list. You must check the above two lists every day if you hope to find volatile stocks that can snap back
Biotech Short Squeezes: Dendreon and others can often be found in this category.Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: These are potential breakout plays.
Stockpickr's System Trades of the Day: These are trades triggering that day in various back-tested trading systems we've developed.
Stocks With Unusual Options Activity: Perhaps someone knows something?
Latest Activist Situations: These are stocks that hedge funds are accumulating shares of and demanding change in. Believe me, these hedge funds piggyback each other. And once they start rocking the boat, things happen quickly. This should be on the must-view list.
One final place to frequent is the Answers section on Stockpickr, where ideas such as those presented in this article are thrown around daily. And you can further discuss your ideas and share opinions in Stockpickr's Member Forums section.
Posted on Sept. 8, 2008
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