By Stockpickr Guest Columnist Glen Bradford
Be forewarned: I invest in the "riskiest" companies.
Hi, I am Glen Bradford, but you can call me Shoeless Joe. In the past
week, my stock-picking abilities have whisked me from batting-tee baseball into the minor leagues. I've turned my college savings into a stock market grand-slamming portfolio. So I wrote to Jim Cramer looking for more coaching. That's how I got introduced to James Altucher.
And that's where the madness begins. I typically like to outline my picks and take a definitive stand. It seems to work; the first article I wrote for Stockpickr drew a lot of readers.
So what’s my strategy? I look for stocks with the most understandable history of revenues and earnings and use those to forecast the future.
Here are the two most-predictable companies I hold:
Hurco (HURC): It's underpriced because of a huge earnings surprise two quarters ago. Now it's over-adjusted the latest earnings estimate and whiffed big time. Wall Street dropped Hurco like a hot potato, right into the fire.
But look past the blunders. Hurco's right on track with my schedule. This is your ticket to the Willy Wonka Candy Factory -- the golden ticket. Hurco's expected to grow at 3%. I have it at 25%. I'll gladly take the difference of 22% here. Buy me some peanuts and cracker jacks. This one's outta the park!
Kinetic Concepts (KCI): Kinetic Concepts is a medical company with great ideas. For example, it uses reverse pressure (vacuum) to help heal patients.
It just made a deal with 3M (MMM), a company 22 times the size of Kinetic, to market wound-care products together. Kinetic has the better end of this deal. And Kinetic Concepts just acquired LifeCell, which has been growing at about 100% year over year. I have Kinetic growing at 19% without LifeCell. Good thing it's priced to grow at 2%. There's a 17% difference here. Another grand slam!
Relating stocks to baseball, here's how I bat. I'm the Big Bambino. You can't hit a bad pitch over the fence. Who cares about singles or sacrifice flies? And I'm not going to strike out. Unless I see a perfect pitch, I'll take the walk.
But remember that these fundamentals are contrarian. I'm buying high-risk (undervalued)/ low-risk (fundamentally strong) companies with explosive growth potential. That's my formula. As long as people are out there pitching these awesome companies at rock bottom prices, I'll be hitting grand slams.
Disclosure: I'm stepping up to the plate on these (I own HURC, KCI).
To read about my other picks, including Ebix (EBIX), Terex (TEX), LSB (LXU), Xinyuan (XIN), Sigma (SIGM), VSE (VSEC), go to GlenBradford.com.
Posted on Aug. 18, 2008
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