By Stockpickr Staff
Posted on March 19, 2009
Despite the political rhetoric of the current administration, President Obama clearly supports "tidal-wave economics," involving the government's raining trillions of tax-payer dollars to stimulate the American economy out of a potential depression. Obama has outlined several new initiatives he would like to see expanded as part of his new budget and the current stimulus package.
Many investors argue about the validity of such plans going forward, about their effects on both the short-term and long-term growth of the American economy, and about the increased role of government. But these debates usually are counterproductive and don't offer money-making ideas for this brutal bear market.
Here are five companies that could benefit under an Obama economy.
AthenaHealth (ATHN): In the latest stimulus package approved by Congress, Obama has segmented about $50 billion to “improve various aspects of Medicare.” The single best play off of this is AthenaHealth, which acts as the backbone of the Medicaid system, offering backend services to doctors and hospitals. AthenaHealth has had 35 quarters of consecutive revenue growth and has sported an annual growth rate of 35% since its third quarter of 2008. Their client base includes roughly 12,000 physicians across 40 or so states.
According to a January 2009 report from the Institute of Medicine, government institutions "should explicitly embrace measurable health care quality improvement as the driving rationale for healthcare IT adoption efforts, and should shun programs that focus on promoting the adoption of specific clinical applications.”
This statement has AthenaHealth written all over it.
In a weird bit of irony, AthenaHealth’s CEO, Jonathan S. Bush, the nephew of former president George W. Bush, openly voted for Barack Obama.
AeroVironment (AVAV): AeroVironment makes unmanned aircraft used for surveillance in Iraq and Afghanistan. With the Obama administration's plans to remove troops from the front lines, the company will likely see larger-than-expected orders for its ultra-light-weight, force-multiplying aircrafts.
AeroVironment is a high-growth stock. Revenue firm-wide went from just $48 million in 2004 to $216 million in 2008, which represents a 46% compounded annual growth rate. During this period, gross profit went from just $15 million in 2004 to $79 million in 2008, as gross margins, a measure of a firm's profitability on a per-unit basis, averaged 38.2%.
After hitting a 52-week high of $41.22 in mid-February, shares of AeroVironment are down more than 45%. The company recently reduced its 2009 revenue forecast from a range of 20% to 25% growth to a range of 11% to 16% growth. While investors had every right to slam the stock on the reduced guidance, the difference in expected revenue is only $20.1 million, suggesting the 45% downward reaction is overdone.
MasTec (MTZ): MasTec is the single best play off the U.S.'s ailing electrical grid and off Obama’s mission to modernize the grid going forward.
For fourth-quarter 2008, MasTec said that its quarterly net income jumped to $18.2 million, or 26 cents per share, compared with just $7.3 million, or 11 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter soared to $413.9 million, up 51% from just $273.6 million a year ago and 8.5% better than analyst estimates of $381.4 million. For full-year 2009, MasTec reaffirmed its 2009 earnings guidance in the range of $1.05 to $1.15 per share on revenue of $1.95 billion to $2 billion.
Astec Industries (ASTE): Astec is the best way to play Obama's stimulus package, particularly with regards to the $30 billion or so that will be allocated toward road and highway repair. This under-the-radar name trades for just five times cash flows and sported 40% growth last year. For the fourth quarter, Astec's net income fell to $9 million, or 38 cents a share, from $11.4 million, or 50 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue fell 12% to $195 million.
Woodward Governor (WGOV): Woodward Governor, designs, manufactures and services energy control systems and components for aircraft, industrial engines and wind turbines. Woodward Governor is a solid diversified company that will take advantage of Obama’s wind-turbine initiatives.
On March 2, management proactively lowered its 2009 earnings-per-share estimates from $1.65 to $1.90 on revenue of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion to $1.40 to $1.65 on revenue o $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion. Woodward Governor is trading near a historic trough of just 6.5 times forward earnings vs. its historical average of 15.7 times forward earnings.
On Jan. 20, Stockpickr published a bearish piece on Woodward Governor suggesting that the stock was severely overvalued at $23 and would likely move lower in the coming weeks and months. On March 18, shares of Woodward Governor closed at $9.67, roughly 60% below its Jan. 20 price of $23. The stock now offers long-term value for interested investors.
For more stocks that could benefit from an Obama economy, check out Stockpickr's Obama-proofing portfolio. Ideas include Chemed (CHE) an end-of-life-care company, and Genzyme (GENZ), a Democratic favorite biotech company, as well as a bearish view on Granite Construction (GVA).
Who’s on Stockpickr Answers? Richard Widows will be on Stockpickr Answers on March 19 to respond to investing and trading questions posed by members of the Stockpickr community. Not a member? Join the Stockpickr community today -- free.
P.S. Where is Cramer putting his own money? Take a free peek at his personal portfolio to see all his buys and sells by clicking here. When you do, Jim will also send you exclusive email alerts telling you everything he’s about to add to or shed from his Action Alerts PLUS portfolio -- before he makes his trade.
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